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[Guru3D] SK Hynix Launches Fastest 8Gb Graphics DRAM (GDDR6) - Adopted by 2018 - Page 10

post #91 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hardware Hoshi View Post

Before we go into details, let's be said that AMD has the habit of presenting their hardware in the best light. They showed doom roughly at 1080 level or slightly higher. That demo is already the best case scenario for them. You can compare the type of results with similar announcements back with Fiji and Polaris. Alot of that stuff is pure marketing and actually not worth a single second of attantion. We will have to wait for final reviews of non-biased sources.

Too bad that shaders don't scale linear. GCN has problems to utilized them to full load. One of the reasons why AMD needs to use tricks like "Asynchornous Compute Shaders" to fire up anything with workload. If there are other techniques like the HBCC for the memory comes into play, it just shows the difficulty of utilizing the full potential of the theoretical rawpower.

To b feared is the amount of optimizations the game developers have to put in again. If said features have to be supported full time by dedicated programmers, alot of unused potential could lie waste in general. Only the AMD house and garden studios will be able to fully bring out Vega's power. Therefor I see ithe results really dependent on the scenario.

We both can do number games all day long, but never reach a complusive outcome. Vega is and stays a mystery. Yet when I ever learned something about AMD in the last few years, all they could accomplish at best was parity with the competition.

From everything we know so far, the enthusiast segment is out of AMD's reach. Although it doesn't have to be bad per se. There is a small possiblity that Vega can at least swirl up everything at 1080 level or lower. For the prices we have to see how the market reacts. I am more worried about what happends when Volta really arrives with GDDR6. The time between Volta and Navi release could bring another round of absurd prices, if AMD is not fully competitive.

Yes, this has always proven to be true, where their charts and presentations are quite overzealous. It is disappointing that we already know where Vega will stand, and is likely their best case scenario. While it isn't the best available information we have, it is all we have currently. Of course non-biased sources are going to be required to properly dissect the part, we have a basic understanding of where it will land.

Granted, shaders don't scale linearly, the Doom demonstration luckily proves that these estimates are relatively accurate. Of course there are other GNC "tricks" that offload the work, I do not see these techniques as something to be viewed negatively as they will only benefit the architecture in the future when Vulkan and DX12 become more widely used APIs. Of course this doesn't assist them currently, but again AMD cards have always been about the long haul not the short term. The HBCC again seems like pretty cool technology, like Asynch, but it seems as you say it is being used to avoid the lack of full theoretical power (Fiji XT). Which as you said brings us back to the optimizations required to fully utilize this technology. AMD titles will likely see Vega performing at its best, but then non-AMD titles or NVIDIA titles are probably going to demonstrate quite the performance deficit. However, as time progresses, like the 290 and 290X we will see driver improvements, and gains through alternative APIs, but again this doesn't assist Vega in the present moment.

It's been quite a while since we have seen AMD take the performance crown indefinitely, and at best we see performance parity, but this is kind of expected over the years seeing how recent AMD GPU releases have went. It's almost predictable.

Well, what I'm hoping is that they can compete properly in the 1080 and lower level (seems probable) but based on the 500 series amazing pricing on AMD's end seems improbable. As I said previously, the best RX 580 cards are already priced at $280-300. Meaning, an AIB 1070 competitor is going to be at least $400 or more and consequently an AIB 1080 competitor in the $500 range immediately. Not taking into account the fact that these cards have HBM2. doh.gif

I worry also, as Vega still isn't out yet, NVIDIA is already releasing revisions of their Pascal cards. The full Pascal lineup is out. Talks about Volta coming out in as little as six months. Navi isn't slated until 2018 on their Roadmap, but going by the usual AMD delay train, I can only imagine what part of 2018 they are talking about (Q4 2018?!). I mean recent leaks have Navi 10 marked as 2019+ (which is highly discerning). Which as you said brings another round of NVIDIA price gouging with Volta.
Edited by BiG StroOnZ - 4/25/17 at 2:31pm
post #92 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arturo.Zise View Post

So all those people who bought Titan Xp and 1080ti better savor every minute you have until these release and wipe the floor for the same price biggrin.gif
That's called playing the waiting game, and it's ultimately up to the person how much longer they want to put up with their existing rig.

I was running i5 2500k + GTX780, so least to say a major upgrade was due and I was waiting no longer wink.gif
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post #93 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by PontiacGTX View Post

Probably for Bandwidth reasons, lower latency,smaller footprint,better thermla disipation,more density per area but probably for APUs the best solution is something can get a good amount of vram with the least power, then for power saving,heat dissipation and Bandwidth/latency might be a good reason for banwidth limited processors, and HBCC would be interesting fi it could be applied to IGPs
They have that HBCC in place already to use smaller HBM capacity as vram + may be other cheaper memory technologies(GDDR or system ram) for additonal vram. Vega also has infinity fabric, that means they are going the route for SoC (or APU)

There is no way AMD can beat Nvidia mindshare, the only way to beat Nvidia is the control the console market, then shift the gaming hardware to SoC/APU. AMD already done the console part, now is to wait their APU dream come true.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tojara View Post

Which completely makes sense, since most of the cost of those cards comes from the board and memory. Transferring that to the mobo and APU should bring cost way down. I don't think they'll compete with $200+ cards before die stacking is a thing (and I'm not talking about memory)..
may be they not needing die stacking, with infinity fabric they can place multiple dies those in 1 socket.

$200 should be easy considering that people in these class usually spent a total of $150+CPU & $200 on GPU, that would mean a $350 APU.
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post #94 of 108

This make an first half 2018 introduction of xx80/70 likely, but we could see mobile and desktop cards based on a GV106 chip using DDR5X Q3/Q4 this year. A Titan Volta could also be quite early in 2018 using HBM2.

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post #95 of 108

AMD sold Intel the their APU tech, probably immediately after locking up an iron clad contract with Sony and Microsoft for their consoles.

Which brings me to why it seems AMD is really pushing HBM tech, because in consoles its a game changer, smaller thermal, wattage and physical footprint on their systems and a performance boost....
post #96 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by geoxile View Post

It's known that Fiji had a weak rasterizer and inefficient cache. If memory bandwidth was the real problem we wouldn't be hearing of a 2-stack HBM2 Vega, which would only amount to 512GB/s yet again.
https://forums.overclockers.co.uk/threads/the-fury-x-fiji-owners-thread.18678073/page-349#post-29045102
https://www.techpowerup.com/forums/threads/overclocked-hbm-its-true-and-its-fast.213875/
It seems like it did benefit from OCing the memory on the Fury X?
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post #97 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by BiG StroOnZ View Post

Warning: Spoiler! (Click to show)
This is their reasoning behind releasing the 9Gbps and 11Gbps enhancements to these cards. The RX 580 is already out and ties, slightly wins or slightly loses (TPU has it 7% faster on average) versus the 1060. Finally, the RX 580 is actually a viable option whereas with the 480 most people said, "might as well get a 1060," because the performance difference was substantial enough to dismiss the 480 as an option (and many other variables). Whereas today, with the 580, the card is incredibly competitive in comparison to the 1060. Here though, NVIDIA doesn't want to leave that performance parity open and by simply increasing the memory speed on the revamp; the 1060 can be back to being 5-10% ahead of the 580. While you describe this as a gap-filler, it is still a swift move or play by NVIDIA. Sure it isn't a game changing move, but it is enough to carry them over to the next generation. They already made the sales they needed to make and with even a slight performance advantage, alongside brand recognition, it will allow NVIDIA to continue to make those impulse buying sales from potential customers. With the 1080 11 Gbps, again the same applies (the videos I saw of the comparisons between Vega and the 1080 showed them basically having identical performance, with maybe a slight advantage going to Vega). Most recent leaks have Volta at around Q3 2017 which is around September/October right in time for holiday. Recently, we have seen that release leak estimations and dates have been pretty accurate. That gives them half of a year to use Pascal to compete with the Vega stack. Now here's where things get problematic. If this is the case and we see a 2080 card dropped before 2018 or at least we have all the information available about it (like NVIDIA has been doing lately with their press releases) with availability around Q4 2017 / Q1 2018 that means that now, AMD has a whole slew of problems. This is because the 2080 is more than likely going to be Titan Xp performance for around $600. Now if the Vega card is also $600 because of having HBM2 and only is around 1080 performance, you can see how detrimental this could be; because as you say with Vega it is going to have HBM2, and today, if it only competes with the 1080, it will be difficult for them to get people to go over to the Red Team if the pricing isn't aggressive. AMD still has the issue of being the value option, or price to performance option. People only want to go AMD if it makes sense from a monetary standpoint. Aside from AMD enthusiasts, it is hard for them to convince potential buyers because their cards and products are still stigmatized. So here, while Pascal is still available, this can become an issue and then even worse if Volta is indeed a 2017 product.

There is a possibility that the card AMD demonstrated is not their fasted card, but based on math it seems unlikely:

An RX 580 has 2306 SPs, as far as I'm aware the maximum amount of SPs possible on GCN is 4096. That's a 78% increase in SPs. If we are to estimate that 78% increase in SPs means 78% linear increase in performance; we arrive at 12.7% faster than a GTX 1080 @ 1440p (we saw with the Fury X that HBM didn't really affect performance as much as we thought it would, when compared to the 980 Ti. Therefore, I'm not adding more performance percentage points for HBM 2 for that exact reason):



This unfortunately means, that AMD doesn't have a competitor against the 1080 Ti / Titan Xp which again means they aren't actually competing in the high end segment for yet another generation. Translating to, again, NVIDIA doing anything they freaking want with prices for the rest of Pascal's life and for Volta's lifespan whether that means for better or for worse (undercutting AMD or price gouging).

Now that we see where Vega will most likely end up, even though the 1080 is a mid-sized chip, it still is going to easily compete with full Vega, especially after adding the 11 Gbps memory. Hopefully AMD has some magic sauce that allows them to price Vega @ $550 or something along those lines and retain a 5-8% performance advantage over the 1080 @ $500 where then it could be a pretty hopeful battle. However, again, NVIDIA will not leave that performance delta open for too long, they must always retain the performance crown. Bringing us back to our Volta release estimations in Q3/Q4 2017 as even more probable. As a 2080 that is as fast as a Titan Xp for say $600-650 means that the 2080 will be around 30% faster than the best Vega SKU for $550-600, while only being 10% more expensive. I mean there is a chance that AMD blows us away and can offer the biggest Vega SKU for 1070 prices, but then that leaves no price available for cut down products that are supposed to compete with the 1070 instead of the 1080. I mean the best versions of the RX 580 are already $300. So what would a Vega card that is a 1070 and 1080 competitor cost. Doesn't leave much room for price wars.

They will most likely manipulate the amount of VRAM additionally, as I agree with that and they could utilize more memory compression technology, but of course that isn't as good as simply increasing the memory bandwidth by increasing the speed. Of course there are future improvements with the 16 Gbps; GDDR5 started @ 900MHz and today it is @ 8000-9000MHz. Surely there is advancements to be made with the technology. Which brings us back to discussions we had around 2 years ago, is HBM going to survive or ever going to even be necessary for consumer GPUs? Or is this going to be a case where Radeon Technologies Group consistently uses HBM technology in their GPUs and NVIDIA goes a different route by sticking to modern day GDDR technology; whether GDDR6 or G5X

Good post, inspired me to do some armchair math redface.gif, and I came to roughly the same conclusion.

Using the Strix 390X, Fury X, and Strix 580 in Witcher 3 to compare, and ignoring the influence of memory differences:

390X ~ 0.0002375 (FPS/shader)/ROP
RX 580 ~ 0.0004313 (FPS/shader)/ROP

If we assume there have been no further improvements from polaris to vega, a 4096 shader 64 ROP vega part would be roughly 81.6% faster (factoring in a clock speed of ~1400 vs the 1080mhz on fiji) than full Fiji, or achieve approximately 96 FPS at 1440p in The Witcher 3 @ ~1411mhz. This is only around 17% faster than a FE 1080, in likely the best case scenario.

*If the scenario ends up being similar to Fiji Pro vs Fiji XT, there may be no reason to buy full Vega if you're concerned about gaming performance and not benchmarking.
Edited by rv8000 - 4/26/17 at 9:24am
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post #98 of 108
Now what are the odds that AMD drops Vega right around GDC to steal some of NVIDIA's thunder? biggrin.gif
post #99 of 108
Wasn't GDC last month?
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post #100 of 108
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hardware Hoshi View Post

@ KyadCK
Nitpicking won't help. Non of the issues you mentioned are as bad as lazy rebranding. And to make matters worse, AMD has been the Rebrand king since a few years. Some Radeon models even got rebranded several times. Look at the whole series level, getting Rebranded way too much. See HD6000 series, then R7/9-200 -> 300 and now RX400 -> RX500 series. Nvidia had their rebrand too, but outside of mobile chips or low-end OEM models, it weren't nearly as much as AMD did in the recent years. There is no excuse for denying the customers new hardware and try to fool them too. Nvidia at least hat the dignity to lower the tier of the cards going from 80 to 70 and 70 to 60 a.s.o!

AMD is not even thinking about his and just patches everything ab by the first number. If you bought a R9-290/290X in 2014, you still haven't gotten the chance for anything faster, low availability and high prices from Fiji aside. Try to knock at that door and make your favorite company a little more fire under their lazy butts. They either bring nothing, the old crap, or it takes forever - like Vega. rolleyes.gif

Look at the R&D budget of AMD and then split it in half. They are using it on the cpu & gpu front. You are being ridiculous. Rebranding is hardly an "issue" compared to many of the other things pointed out by others.

That said, mock all you like but how are the 770, 780, 780ti, titan, 970 and 980 doing these days? AMD's rebranded cards aren't exactly having a problem with them though according to you they are apparently horrible rebrands and all that.

AMD may not have offered me a worthy upgrade over my 290x but I'm still far better off than I would have been on a more expensive 780ti or a similar priced 780. The OG Titan is is no better shape for that matter..

390x is still a plenty capable card and honestly the only worthy upgrade for that is gtx1080 class or higher.
Edited by SoloCamo - 4/26/17 at 2:51pm
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