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[KitGuru] AMD Radeon RX Vega caught hiding in plain sight - Page 45

post #441 of 664
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Patekar View Post

Did you even read AMD's earning results? The operating loss of their graphics group has decreased significantly since they launched Polaris. Granted I doubt the margins on Polaris are as stellar as nVidia's milking of the high end, but Polaris is slowing the bleeding while they continue to spend on R&D. This is why Vega is important for AMD (although not as important as Rysen).

In fact AMD did sell less graphics cards in this first quarter 2017. I am just reading reports AMD might have lost market share again because of this. Slowing the bleeding is stil bleeding. I have never seen a company doing that much cash burn as AMD does. If Vega is a similar low-margin product, they will not have enough R&D money earned for future products.

On the other hand Ryzen will stay the money sucker too because AMD has caught up to Intel and at least needs to stay in reach. In theory all products are important for AMD because they don't have many. The next few years contain fast developments again. If AMD misses opportunities here, the impact could be very negative in the long run.
post #442 of 664
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hardware Hoshi View Post

If Vega is a similar low-margin product, they will not have enough R&D money earned for future products.

Then we'll see a similar situation as the CPU space with bulldozer. AMD will offer budget and mainstream parts and simply opt-out competing in the high end. nVidia will get fat and lazy like intel and GPU advances will halt to a crawl.

AMD was always a CPU company first, GPU second. They bought ATI to enhance their CPU business after all. Personally I have my fingers crossed that Naples makes it into data centers and Rysen starts shipping in OEMs to feed AMD some much needed capital.

I have very little faith the graphics division of AMD can compete with nVidia's mindshare without extra capital from the CPU division.
post #443 of 664
Quote:
Originally Posted by DzillaXx View Post

^

For Example the 680 vs 7970.

At Launch the 680 was faster than a 7970.

The 7970 wasn't even using GCN optimized drivers till a year later.

Now the 7970 compares to a gtx780 and the gtx680 can hardly keep up with a 7870.

Man do times change.

One of Nvidia's biggest problems back then was not putting enough vram in their cards. But i'm sure that they did it on purpose. Can't get people to upgrade their hardware if it just keeps working flawlessly.


Hell even the 290x didn't have perfect drivers at launch, but it was far from the 7970.


Problem with AMD now is their drivers are so solid for the most part. I actually have more problems with my current Nvidia card than I did with my old 290x. So Nvidia could learn a few things (one being update the ugly UI).



AMD Cards just age too well. They need to do what Nvidia does. Stop Optimizing for their old cards when a new series drops. Otherwise people will be too happy with their old cards.

Yes they generally age better, but they still get old. I bought 7970 on release, 2 years later it was way too slow for me, even with all the optimization that came later and overclocked to 1200/1600.

So I don't see why 7970 being faster than 680 matters today. Both cards are pretty bad, even for 1080p gaming.
The biggest problem with 680 today is the 2GB VRAM. Nvidia cards back then had too little VRAM (atleast standard versions). Today it's not the problem. The extra 1GB VRAM on 7970 was perfect looking back. AMD cards today don't really have this advantage. I've seen numerous benchmarks with Fury X/Fury and very low minimums because VRAM ran out. That card won't mature well, I can already tell you that.

I don't think I've kept a GPU for more than 2 years. My 980 Ti will probably be the first, if Vega fails to impress, because then I'll wait for Volta (small die / GTX 2080/2070).
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post #444 of 664
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Patekar View Post

Then we'll see a similar situation as the CPU space with bulldozer. AMD will offer budget and mainstream parts and simply opt-out competing in the high end. nVidia will get fat and lazy like intel and GPU advances will halt to a crawl.

Nah, Nvidia is hungry for more. They need to keep on their growth rates because otherwise their stocks will fall dramatically. As a company they will advance new fields in the next upcoming years. Unlike Intel they are not a slow moving behemoth with a handbrake attached.

Your analogy with AMD leaving the GPU high-end like they did with Bulldozer already came to my mind. I had the same feeling when Polaris was said to be the only architecture coming in 2016 through end of 1st half of 2017. I can only hope AMd gets back into their game soon.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Patekar View Post

AMD was always a CPU company first, GPU second. They bought ATI to enhance their CPU business after all. Personally I have my fingers crossed that Naples makes it into data centers and Rysen starts shipping in OEMs to feed AMD some much needed capital.

Workstation and Server business is slow to adapt. Changes could take years in this area. In comparison to the moody consumer market, the business customers have high standards and therefore big demands. One-time hits are not seen there. You need a steady stream of good products and aspects as reliability and punctuality are very important. Sadly AMD is exactly lacking in this pionts. It is their main desease if you will.

Before this doesn't change I see no success story here.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Patekar View Post

I have very little faith the graphics division of AMD can compete with nVidia's mindshare without extra capital from the CPU division.

As I already mentioned, I am not sure if this "CPU division capital" is really going into the RTG division too. Seeing AMD still making losses as of now, they first have to stabilize the company again. I am so sick of repeating this very phrase over and over for the last years.

The mindshare of Nvidia on the other hand is hard earned. You can see each architecture improve over the years.
1st Fermi Gen. was bad, 2nd was decent. Kepler was better and everything from Maxwell onwards improved drastically.

AMD hasn't shown anything impressive since mayybe the 7000-series or Hawaii. Fiji and Polaris were medicre at best and did not leave a lasting impression. Continiuously doing rebrands and refreshes don't help either. Looking back at all this, I see why I am so pessimistic about Vega.
post #445 of 664
Quote:
Originally Posted by HanSomPa View Post

Calling your argument speculation is not a strawman.

For all we know, they are following the same roadmap created years ago. Nobody on this board even understands what business management is... let alone have any authority on which to "grade" it with.
My argument was that you can't make judgements about what their current (new) management is doing, because it takes 3-5 years for any new product decisions to come to fruition. Even if they're just continuing previous management's decisions, we still won't know the results of that for 3-5 years. The first products that could possibly have been conceived under the new managements control would be the upcoming Navi GPU, and possibly Vega.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hardware Hoshi View Post

That is the main budget what was going on for the RTG division and barely had crumbs left. The CPU side profits massively and invested the rest in Ryzen. Decisions like this were never in the last managements agenda. Rory Read wanted to heavily go into servers because he is a former IBM person. You can never plan 5-years ahead. Not in a fast changing environment like the IT-sector. As a company you have to always adapt to new situation.
You have a severe disconnect on how the semiconductor industry actually functions. They are ALWAYS planning 3-5 years ahead in the semiconductor industry. Products being released today were planned 3-5 years ago. It takes millions upon millions of man-hours to design, test and debug an all-new processor. Processors being released now started development in 2012-2014.
Quote:
Go back to your comment and see for yourself what your "light" meant.
I said "the light of day", in reference to the day a product gets released - the day it was born - the day it "sees" the light. I was not implying AMD is "seeing the light at the end of the tunnel" as you interpreted it.
Quote:
Don't even dare to compare AMD with big-shots like Apple or Samsung. Their pocket money is bigger than AMD as a whole.
What in the world are you talking about? AMD's internal development teams function the exact same way as Apples, or Samsungs. Any semiconductor company has multiple teams working on multiple products. Zen+ was already well in development before Ryzen was even released, and there are certainly teams within AMD already working on Zen++. Just like how Navi was being worked on before Polaris or Vega were even released.

Here's a pertinent quote from an semiconductor industry executive:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Palmer 
Designing microprocessors is like playing Russian roulette. You put a gun to your head, pull the trigger, and find out four years later if you blew your brains out.

Edited by AmericanLoco - 5/4/17 at 6:51am
post #446 of 664
Quote:
Originally Posted by DzillaXx View Post

Warning: Spoiler! (Click to show)
Quote:
Originally Posted by CasualCat View Post

There have been many times going back at least 5 years in which AMD wasn't clearly the better choice at product release. Sometimes it was only in hindsight that choosing AMD would have been the better choice.

^

For Example the 680 vs 7970.

At Launch the 680 was faster than a 7970.

The 7970 wasn't even using GCN optimized drivers till a year later.

Now the 7970 compares to a gtx780 and the gtx680 can hardly keep up with a 7870.

Man do times change.

One of Nvidia's biggest problems back then was not putting enough vram in their cards. But i'm sure that they did it on purpose. Can't get people to upgrade their hardware if it just keeps working flawlessly.


Hell even the 290x didn't have perfect drivers at launch, but it was far from the 7970.


Problem with AMD now is their drivers are so solid for the most part. I actually have more problems with my current Nvidia card than I did with my old 290x. So Nvidia could learn a few things (one being update the ugly UI).



AMD Cards just age too well. They need to do what Nvidia does. Stop Optimizing for their old cards when a new series drops. Otherwise people will be too happy with their old cards.

Regarding your last paragraph, no, that's the last thing that they could do. What they need to do is release products that have their own merit in moving things forward; put people with older cards looking forward to what's new and being able to justify the purchase on merits of the new things instead of feeling pushed by owning a card that is intentionally being left behind.

The real problem with AMD is that they still haven't delivered anything worth moving to for a 290X or 390X owner. If we are to be cynical, with so much arch recycling, the so called "Fine Wine" technology is essentially a logical necessity for them.
 
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post #447 of 664
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Originally Posted by Pro3ootector View Post

Same thing will happen with RX 480 and GTX 1060, AMD card has more VRAM, it's priced well, and has better Vulcan / DX12 performance.

Already has started. tongue.gif

480 > 1060 on most benchmarks now.
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post #448 of 664
Quote:
Originally Posted by DzillaXx View Post

Already has started. tongue.gif

480 > 1060 on most benchmarks now.

Still, 1060 was sold 3x better than 480 b/c people...
post #449 of 664
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ha-Nocri View Post

Still, 1060 was sold 3x better than 480 b/c people...
Remember that 1060 has no competition in notebooks which is a sizable market as well.
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post #450 of 664
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hardware Hoshi View Post

Nah, Nvidia is hungry for more. They need to keep on their growth rates because otherwise their stocks will fall dramatically. As a company they will advance new fields in the next upcoming years. Unlike Intel they are not a slow moving behemoth with a handbrake attached.

They'll do like intel. You'll have overpriced gaming cards with little gains like the desktop quad cores and then you'll have the high end overpriced cards for 1000$ like the extreme edition CPUs, and then you'll have your workstation / server GPUs for deep learning that will be very expensive, like Xeons.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hardware Hoshi View Post

As I already mentioned, I am not sure if this "CPU division capital" is really going into the RTG division too. Seeing AMD still making losses as of now, they first have to stabilize the company again. I am so sick of repeating this very phrase over and over for the last years.

If the CPU division is profitable and the graphics division seems too far gone, we may see them stabilize the company by concentrating on CPU sales and scaling back the graphics department to smaller offerings.. like the Polaris launch.

Its a real possibility and, as a consumer wanting competition for better prices, I hope it doesn't happen.
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