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[TH]AMD Ryzen: Good For Enthusiasts, Bad For Investors - Page 5

post #41 of 226
Zen is a huge chip. 192mm^2

Compare with Skylake at 122.4mm^2 - I'll assume Kaby lake is similarly sized

AMD is selling a CPU which is 57% bigger for basically the same price as what intel offers.

Errors also scale with die size. Assuming quadratic scaling, AMD has to throw away around 2.5x as many chips due to defects vs if they ran a smaller die size...

Or sell them as cheaper quad/6 core parts.
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post #42 of 226
What a terrible article by Tom's and it is starting to be a trend when they talk about Ryzen.

AMD has the right strategy by keeping their CPUs unlocked. They knew that they couldn't compete on frequencies alone, so they more than made up for it with additional cores and unlocked multipliers. The R7 1800x and R5 1600x still have a purpose for people that do not overclock, and buyers that do not overclock are more common than people on this forum think. On Amazon, the 1800X is the 2nd highest selling Ryzen, above the 1600. The 1700 is the only thing ahead of it and the 1800x has been close or ahead of the 1600 most days. https://www.amazon.com/Best-Sellers-Electronics-Computer-CPU-Processors/zgbs/electronics/229189 Also, Tom's make it sound as if AMD is losing on all the lower core counts for no good reason other than AMD just didn't bother making lower core count designs. Some of these 8 core designed cpus would otherwise be discarded if they didn't utilize them in lower core count models. They are making revenue where it could have been completely lost, and they saved massive amounts of money on design.

AMD's guidance for Q2 may be conservative. Under Su, she tries to be more grounded with projections than previous AMD CEOs. AMD may end up beating, and I believe that by Q4, margins will be increasing quite a bit because of server sales. Overall Ryzen is a complete success thus far.

As for AMD's stock dropping 26+%, that's because it was overpriced and reached $15/share in an unsustainable way. It got ahead of itself. It's as simple as that.
Edited by Taylor121 - 5/4/17 at 10:56am
post #43 of 226
Quote:
Originally Posted by xlink View Post

Zen is a huge chip. 192mm^2

Compare with Skylake at 122.4mm^2 - I'll assume Kaby lake is similarly sized

AMD is selling a CPU which is 57% bigger for basically the same price as what intel offers.

Errors also scale with die size. Assuming quadratic scaling, AMD has to throw away around 2.5x as many chips due to defects vs if they ran a smaller die size...

Or sell them as cheaper quad/6 core parts.

Nah, don't compare it to Skylake. Zen APUs maybe, but those don't exist just yet. wink.gif

It's most comparable to Broadwell-EP, more specifically the small, 10-core LCC die. That one is 246mm2. That's pretty comparable to Ryzen; each core corresponds to around 25mm2 of die space. Both of those are intended for small servers, workstations, and HEDT markets, while Skylake and Kaby Lake (as good as they are) are technically "mainstream" chips.
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post #44 of 226
I just looked at the 'Best sellers' list for PC components for Amazon US and Amazon.co.uk and it looks pretty grim for AMD. The 7700K was in the top 15 and the first Ryzen SKUs were outside the top 60. I know there are extenuating circumstances here (stock and time on the market) but bloody hell. Anything AMD gets grinded up by the colossal Intel (and Nvidia) marketing machines and it's so sad.

The 1600 should render anything from Intel totally irrelevant at its price range, it's a price - performance king.
post #45 of 226
They should stick to hardware reviews.

Stock analysis is a different kind of beast....

Such a low-quality article.
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post #46 of 226
Quote:
Originally Posted by CynicalUnicorn View Post

Nah, don't compare it to Skylake. Zen APUs maybe, but those don't exist just yet. wink.gif

It's most comparable to Broadwell-EP, more specifically the small, 10-core LCC die. That one is 246mm2. That's pretty comparable to Ryzen; each core corresponds to around 25mm2 of die space. Both of those are intended for small servers, workstations, and HEDT markets, while Skylake and Kaby Lake (as good as they are) are technically "mainstream" chips.

So from an "architectural efficiency" perspective it's not apples to apples and I agree.

From a "it costs $X to make" standpoint, it's a reasonable figure to put out.

From a price perspective, most of Ryzen is priced against 4 core i5 and i7 chips.
The 1800x is priced against a 6 core broadwell chip.

CPU production costs DO affect margins.
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post #47 of 226
AMD is the underdog, but I've always looked towards amd when building a rig at a lower cost. Fx8370 I purchased for 150 18 months ago at micro enter I felt that I had gotten the best bang for my buck. With the Apu s amd is the best economic choice, but their stock isn't going to jump from product sales alone. Investors will drive up the stock. Remember AMD does not own their own Fabs like Intel, that's a big blow when an investor looks for future growth. They will think you don't make your own chips? how do you do R&D with out huge fab facilities? point I am trying to make is I believe if AMD built a home with fabs and did their OWN manufacturing, boy now we have committed compitition.
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post #48 of 226
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shatun-Bear View Post

I just looked at the 'Best sellers' list for PC components for Amazon US and Amazon.co.uk and it looks pretty grim for AMD. The 7700K was in the top 15 and the first Ryzen SKUs were outside the top 60. I know there are extenuating circumstances here (stock and time on the market) but bloody hell. Anything AMD gets grinded up by the colossal Intel (and Nvidia) marketing machines and it's so sad.

The 1600 should render anything from Intel totally irrelevant at its price range, it's a price - performance king.

In the U.S., the 1700 is rank 9 amd the 1800x rank 11. What are you looking at? https://www.amazon.com/Best-Sellers-Electronics-Computer-CPU-Processors/zgbs/electronics/229189

Edit: Nevermind. I didn't read your post carefully. You are looking at PC components as a whole. On the CPU list, Ryzen is doing quite well.
post #49 of 226
Quote:
Originally Posted by Taylor121 View Post

In the U.S., the 1700 is rank 9 amd the 1800x rank 11. What are you looking at? https://www.amazon.com/Best-Sellers-Electronics-Computer-CPU-Processors/zgbs/electronics/229189

Edit: Nevermind. I didn't read your post carefully. You are looking at PC components as a whole. On the CPU list, Ryzen is doing quite well.

Well I'm looking at Computer Components, where you can see the chasm between the placings more clearly. When just looking at CPU sales, you get the impression Ryzen is selling closer to the Kaby/Skylakes than they are.
post #50 of 226
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shatun-Bear View Post

Well I'm looking at Computer Components, where you can see the chasm between the placings more clearly. When just looking at CPU sales, you get the impression Ryzen is selling closer to the Kaby/Skylakes than they are.

Holy crap there are a lot of Raspberry Pi kits for sale.
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