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[Electrek] Electric car sales reach 40% growth in the US and it’s about to blow up

5K views 112 replies 51 participants last post by  delboy67 
#1 ·
Quote:


Once seen as a fad by industry watchers and auto executives, most would now admit that the rise of electric cars seems inevitable. Countries like Norway, where electric cars recently reached 42% of total new car sales, show that it is the future.

The US is definitely trailing behind, but the growth rate is now increasing and with several new electric cars coming to market, it's likely about to blow up.

Peter O'Connor of the Union of Concerned Scientists noted this week that the US electric vehicle market saw a 32% annual growth rate between 2012-2016 and it is now reaching 40%.

He makes a projection based on the growth rate:

"But what if the market were actually hitting a "tipping point" such that this recent growth could continue? If a 40% growth rate could be sustained for the next six years, then we would see EVs reach 10% of US vehicle sales in 2023, and possibly near 20% by 2025."

That's encouraging, but as we previously reported, the current growth is likely to be dwarfed by what's coming in the next 2 years.

With Tesla's Model 3 launching this month and early deliveries being concentrated in the US, the vehicle alone could double annual EV sales in the country by the end of next year if Tesla can achieve its production goal, which is a big if.
Source: https://electrek.co/2017/07/21/electric-car-sales-us/
 
#3 ·
and for the electricity, the planet is covered with thorium, we could see many thousands of years of human society yet
tongue.gif
 
#5 ·
Won't be taking any of my 12 hour long drives up into the twisty roads of northern Minnesota with an EV. That trip will take a couple days. Assuming I can find a place to charge. I will stick with my fire belching, gas guzzling, oil burning rotary for a while longer. lol
 
#6 ·
Quote:
Countries like Norway, where electric cars recently reached 42% of total new car sales, show that it is the future.
It's only this way because of the huge incentives Norway offers to purchase and use EV vehicles. IIRC in Oslo they offer free parking, free electricity/charging stations, etc. Also, I believe (correct me if wrong) there are major discounts on the purchase of them as well.
 
#9 ·
They've definitely improved a lot, but with how I used to use a vehicle (I haven't had one for almost ten years due to various reasons, but we'll go with "blew the engine at the track" as the main one) an electric vehicle would barely get me to Calgary before needing a charge, so visiting friends would get awkward fairly quickly. Charging would also be "interesting" as I live in a neighbourhood where things not bolted down and left outside tend to disappear, especially any kind of extension cord.

For zipping around town... I could see it, but I'm also not a fan of autotragic slushboxes (automatic transmissions) due to previous hobbies (autocross, where a slushbox is an instant, pretty much guaranteed 2-3 second hit to your times) and just preferring to do the shifting myself - especially since too many automatics will hunt gears, which is sooooooooo annoying when trying to go up a hill...

Do I want to see more improvements? Oh yes, do I ever. Give me the performance of a sports car and at least 1500km range on a charge (so it can do Edmonton to Vancouver in one go in a Canadian Winter!) and no slush on the transmission at any part of its lifespan and I suspect I'll go from "that's neat" to a full on supporter.

Or better yet, the ability to drive 800km or so AND have a full track day.
 
#10 ·
Quote:
Originally Posted by WhiteWulfe View Post

They've definitely improved a lot, but with how I used to use a vehicle (I haven't had one for almost ten years due to various reasons, but we'll go with "blew the engine at the track" as the main one) an electric vehicle would barely get me to Calgary before needing a charge, so visiting friends would get awkward fairly quickly. Charging would also be "interesting" as I live in a neighbourhood where things not bolted down and left outside tend to disappear, especially any kind of extension cord.

For zipping around town... I could see it, but I'm also not a fan of autotragic slushboxes (automatic transmissions) due to previous hobbies (autocross, where a slushbox is an instant, pretty much guaranteed 2-3 second hit to your times) and just preferring to do the shifting myself - especially since too many automatics will hunt gears, which is sooooooooo annoying when trying to go up a hill...

Do I want to see more improvements? Oh yes, do I ever. Give me the performance of a sports car and at least 1500km range on a charge (so it can do Edmonton to Vancouver in one go in a Canadian Winter!) and no slush on the transmission at any part of its lifespan and I suspect I'll go from "that's neat" to a full on supporter.

Or better yet, the ability to drive 800km or so AND have a full track day.
Okay, sure, but realize that your use-case is outside the norms of 99% of drivers. Most of which would be perfectly served by an EV.
 
#11 ·
The most efferent way to deliver power to the ground (in car) is by using an electric motor. (Yes I know, I have a turbo car too but electric is so much better)
I believe we will see 100% cars in the future are going electricity. What you can do now is have a large electric motor in the car then put a very small highly efferent turbo charged small internal combustion engine in the car to charge as you drive.
 
#12 ·
Take away the taxpayer funded subsidies and their sales will go into free fall.

Here is what happened to electric car sales in Denmark when they got rid of subsidies...



Sales in Hong Kong also tanked once electric car owners no longer had their neighbor paying for part of their fancy car.
 
#13 ·
Does anyone know how can one invest in car industry stock ? I believe that the Electric car industry will only rise in the coming years.
 
#14 ·
And without massive subsidies (pulled directly out of the taxpayers pockets) and threats from govt I don't doubt that number would be closer to 0. Kinda hard to take the claims of electric cars as the future when big govt has to "incentivize" (force) people to use them. The market clearly doesn't agree with you.

As another poster already said give me a call once they're useful for real life use that people have cars for, and not just for commuting. Can I commute with an EV? yes. Can I take it to go skiing in the mountains? no. Can I take it to visit relatives in another province? no. Can I go camping? no. Can I haul a camper? no. Can I go on a road trip? no. Can I haul a boat? no. you get the picture.

But hey, if someone were to give me an electric car that'd be great. But I'm part of the great unwashed masses who can't afford the luxury of an extra car just to commute when I also need a vehicle for other uses. I'm sure you elites just think I should never vacation and should just happily work myself to death living in squalor and never leaving my lords demesne because screw me I'm just a peasant, but respectfully go pound sand. You're happy using govt violence to force me to live how you want, but sooner or later we peasants will say enough is enough.
 
#15 ·
This is the elephant in the room with electric vehicles. Our residential infrastructure cannot bear the load. So as our genius elected officials promote this nonsense, not only are we being urged to buy these things and replace our reliable, cheap generating systems with expensive, new windmills and solar cells, but we will also have to renovate our entire delivery system! This latter "investment" will not be revealed until we're so far down this dead end road that it will be presented with an 'OOPS...!' and a shrug.

The gasoline powered car costs about $20,000 while the Volt costs $46,000-plus. So the American Government wants loyal Americans not to do the math, but simply pay three times as much for a car, that costs more than seven times as much to run, and takes three times longer to drive across the country.

If you think it looks like a good investment and want to buy stock in electric vehicles (right now), remember that without being propped up by government subsidies, their sales would be nearly 0.
 
#16 ·
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpankyMcFlych View Post

And without massive subsidies (pulled directly out of the taxpayers pockets) and threats from govt I don't doubt that number would be closer to 0. Kinda hard to take the claims of electric cars as the future when big govt has to "incentivize" (force) people to use them. The market clearly doesn't agree with you.
Do you have any idea how much subsidies the United States hands out? Do you have any idea how much the auto and oil industries get in subsidies? This is probably the dumbest comment I've seen today. You may have earned a spot in my sig next to the guy spewing random BS about hydrogen.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpankyMcFlych View Post

As another poster already said give me a call once they're useful for real life use that people have cars for, and not just for commuting. Can I commute with an EV? yes. Can I take it to go skiing in the mountains? no. Can I take it to visit relatives in another province? no. Can I go camping? no. Can I haul a camper? no. Can I go on a road trip? no. Can I haul a boat? no. you get the picture.
.
No, I actually don't get the picture. Can I take an EV to go skiing in the moutains? Yes. Can I take it to visit relatives in another state? Absolutely. Can I go camping? Yes I definitely can go camping. Can I road trip? People have already crossed the US many different ways driving a Tesla. Can you haul a boat? EVs are not trucks?????????? (yet)

Maybe out in the middle of nowhere, where ever you may live EVs are not viable (YET) fine, it's a new technology still being deployed. So with your logic we shouldn't pursue something because you can't get 100% service day one? Just stop. Think while you type, please.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpankyMcFlych View Post

But hey, if someone were to give me an electric car that'd be great. But I'm part of the great unwashed masses who can't afford the luxury of an extra car just to commute when I also need a vehicle for other uses. I'm sure you elites just think I should never vacation and should just happily work myself to death living in squalor and never leaving my lords demesne because screw me I'm just a peasant, but respectfully go pound sand. You're happy using govt violence to force me to live how you want, but sooner or later we peasants will say enough is enough.
What are you even talking about??? If you can't afford an EV you're not buying one and nobody is telling you to. Eventually EVs will be the same price as ICE cars.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zatarra09 View Post

This is the elephant in the room with electric vehicles. Our residential infrastructure cannot bear the load. So as our genius elected officials promote this nonsense, not only are we being urged to buy these things and replace our reliable, cheap generating systems with expensive, new windmills and solar cells, but we will also have to renovate our entire delivery system! This latter "investment" will not be revealed until we're so far down this dead end road that it will be presented with an 'OOPS...!' and a shrug.

The gasoline powered car costs about $20,000 while the Volt costs $46,000-plus. So the American Government wants loyal Americans not to do the math, but simply pay three times as much for a car, that costs more than seven times as much to run, and takes three times longer to drive across the country.

If you think it looks like a good investment and want to buy stock in electric vehicles (right now), remember that without being propped up by government subsidies, their sales would be nearly 0.
Can you back up your claims with specificity please? I'm interested to hear your thoughts on why the US "delivery system" of electricity would need to be upgraded, and upgraded to exactly what. Thanks.

How many times are you boys going to make me facepalm today?
 
#17 ·
Everyone knows running coal is the best way for the environment and also it's just the most manly thing to do, period.
 
#19 ·
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zatarra09 View Post

the obvious... just try to find a place to plug that car in at ANY business in my town. My town is not different from any other mid size city in America.


Oh and there is one at a camp ground too for the guy who said you can't go camping



I'm good in my area. You must live in the middle of nowhere. I'm sure you didn't see gas stations pop up immediately either. Those probably took to become established as well.
 
#22 ·
Quote:
Originally Posted by Owari View Post

Okay, sure, but realize that your use-case is outside the norms of 99% of drivers. Most of which would be perfectly served by an EV.
Electric would do terribly at my job - driving deliveries, and like someone else also mentioned, usable range is still the biggest problem. When I used to have a vehicle, it wasn't unheard of to put 1500-2000km on it over a weekend.

As for track usage, there are plenty of automotive enthusiasts even on this forum, and I have a feeling there would be more who've done solo2 autocross/autoslalom than who would consider an electric vehicle and the possible compromises such brings to the table with it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nilareon View Post

No, I actually don't get the picture. Can I take an EV to go skiing in the moutains? Yes. Can I take it to visit relatives in another state? Absolutely. Can I go camping? Yes I definitely can go camping. Can I road trip? People have already crossed the US many different ways driving a Tesla. Can you haul a boat? EVs are not trucks?????????? (yet)
Sure, people have done road trips in electric vehicles, but how much extra time was added in every time you had to recharge? A family that has a routine down can refuel a vehicle, get out and stretch, pick up a cold beverage to drink, and maybe a snack that isn't one you packed in less than ten minutes. You aren't going to get much of a charge to the batteries in ten minutes.

What if you want to take a highway that doesn't have a charger along the route? Well, can't take the scenic route or take a detour off to somewhere that's caught your eyes because if you get low on power, you're in a serious bind, versus fuel where there's pretty much a service/gas station in every town.

As for trucks versus cars, do realize that North America has pretty much the exact same cars that the rest of the world does (in a lot of cases, it's just cosmetic differences or tweaked software in the ecu), and it isn't unheard of for someone to tow 1500-2000lbs with a Honda Civic, or even some sort of Fiat. It's just the market up here pushes trucks so hard as "the only solution for towing" that most don't realize there's a GCVW/GTVW rating on their car - a rating that is max combined weight of vehicle and trailer, or max trailer weight respectively.

The biggest problem electric vehicles face at this time is that if you want to go on a trip, you have to plan your reserves more so than any general aviation aircraft would have to, and that's something the average person tends to not want on their plate. With a gasoline or diesel engine, you just need to keep tabs on when you last refuelled and how far away the next gas station is, and refuelling is rather easy and painless. At this time, such just isn't there with electric.
 
#23 ·
Quote:
Originally Posted by WhiteWulfe View Post

Or better yet, the ability to drive 800km or so AND have a full track day.
Far out, 800kms. I barely get 400-450kms out of a full tank on my ford falcon.

There has been a change with lithium batteries lately though, with lithium hydroxide batteries. The new tesla vehicles can charge off a normal domestic power socket, 10 Amp. basically plug your car in next to your phone charger.
Chines are investing billions in lithium hydroxide processing plants. Here in WA they are building a $400M plant with 40,000 t/a output at the moment.
Maybe it won't be unreasonable to be doing some larger journey's (with a stop for the night to recharge) in a few years...
 
#24 ·
Quote:
Originally Posted by Prophet4NO1 View Post

Won't be taking any of my 12 hour long drives up into the twisty roads of northern Minnesota with an EV. That trip will take a couple days. Assuming I can find a place to charge. I will stick with my fire belching, gas guzzling, oil burning rotary for a while longer. lol
Yes you will. This is the 80/20 rule in action, your use case is not easily satisfied by an EV at this time, so they won't be selling to you.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SoloCamo View Post

It's only this way because of the huge incentives Norway offers to purchase and use EV vehicles. IIRC in Oslo they offer free parking, free electricity/charging stations, etc. Also, I believe (correct me if wrong) there are major discounts on the purchase of them as well.
Yes, you are probably completely correct. And? It is a classic chicken or egg problem, and you can't apply the economies of scale to the transition problem without having an economy to scale it against. The subsidies aren't a bad thing. It isn't like they ever pay for a large portion of the vehicle, but what they do is encourage those with the means to invest in better technology without fronting the entire cost. Taking the price down from 80kUSD to 70kUSD makes it more reasonable to spend the extra 20-30k to 'do the right thing'. The luxury market shepherds the EV into mainstream by validating their capabilities, and elevating their desirability to the mainstream, which allows cars like the model 3, Bolt, and many EV's in Europe to exist and flourish. Once the transition is under way, the relatively small investment from the taxpayer will directly lead to the availability of the models which the typical taxpayer will purchase.

This framing of subsidies like they are paying for the rich person's toy is ludicrous, it is simply a co-investment to spur the development of the infrastructure required to put out EVs in mainstream sales channels.
Quote:
Originally Posted by WhiteWulfe View Post

They've definitely improved a lot, but with how I used to use a vehicle (I haven't had one for almost ten years due to various reasons, but we'll go with "blew the engine at the track" as the main one) an electric vehicle would barely get me to Calgary before needing a charge, so visiting friends would get awkward fairly quickly. Charging would also be "interesting" as I live in a neighbourhood where things not bolted down and left outside tend to disappear, especially any kind of extension cord.

For zipping around town... I could see it, but I'm also not a fan of autotragic slushboxes (automatic transmissions) due to previous hobbies (autocross, where a slushbox is an instant, pretty much guaranteed 2-3 second hit to your times) and just preferring to do the shifting myself - especially since too many automatics will hunt gears, which is sooooooooo annoying when trying to go up a hill...

Do I want to see more improvements? Oh yes, do I ever. Give me the performance of a sports car and at least 1500km range on a charge (so it can do Edmonton to Vancouver in one go in a Canadian Winter!) and no slush on the transmission at any part of its lifespan and I suspect I'll go from "that's neat" to a full on supporter.

Or better yet, the ability to drive 800km or so AND have a full track day.
You are also an 80/20 victim here, and not the target audience for these initial transition periods. However, as an off topic and fan of manual transmissions, I hate to break the bad news to you but automatics and CVTs are actually better than manual in all cases for cars on roads. An off road racing event has absolutely nothing to do with commuter vehicles, and you should really be able to segregate that bias from your posts.

Maybe the car you want is possible with battery tech increases like solid state batteries, but for now this isn't for you.
Quote:
Originally Posted by WhiteWulfe View Post

Electric would do terribly at my job - driving deliveries, and like someone else also mentioned, usable range is still the biggest problem. When I used to have a vehicle, it wasn't unheard of to put 1500-2000km on it over a weekend.

As for track usage, there are plenty of automotive enthusiasts even on this forum, and I have a feeling there would be more who've done solo2 autocross/autoslalom than who would consider an electric vehicle and the possible compromises such brings to the table with it.
Sure, people have done road trips in electric vehicles, but how much extra time was added in every time you had to recharge? A family that has a routine down can refuel a vehicle, get out and stretch, pick up a cold beverage to drink, and maybe a snack that isn't one you packed in less than ten minutes. You aren't going to get much of a charge to the batteries in ten minutes.

What if you want to take a highway that doesn't have a charger along the route? Well, can't take the scenic route or take a detour off to somewhere that's caught your eyes because if you get low on power, you're in a serious bind, versus fuel where there's pretty much a service/gas station in every town.

As for trucks versus cars, do realize that North America has pretty much the exact same cars that the rest of the world does (in a lot of cases, it's just cosmetic differences or tweaked software in the ecu), and it isn't unheard of for someone to tow 1500-2000lbs with a Honda Civic, or even some sort of Fiat. It's just the market up here pushes trucks so hard as "the only solution for towing" that most don't realize there's a GCVW/GTVW rating on their car - a rating that is max combined weight of vehicle and trailer, or max trailer weight respectively.

The biggest problem electric vehicles face at this time is that if you want to go on a trip, you have to plan your reserves more so than any general aviation aircraft would have to, and that's something the average person tends to not want on their plate. With a gasoline or diesel engine, you just need to keep tabs on when you last refuelled and how far away the next gas station is, and refuelling is rather easy and painless. At this time, such just isn't there with electric.
Considering deliveries are one of the first targeted markets for the EV autonomous driving, I think the industry disagrees with your conclusion. Your specific geographic region might not be well suited for EV deliveries with such a sparsely populated area, but make no mistake the delivery market is in the cross hairs of autonomous EV companies.

You can still use your car at the track, it isn't like this is going to happen at the flip of a switch however I fail to see how in your mind this is an argument to mainstream adoption for commuter and urban/suburban use, it simply makes no sense.

All your arguments on infrastructure, range anxiety, and route planning are all completely valid yet blown out of proportion. The point of having the initial release is to create the market which can support a build up of infrastructure, to solve every one of these problems. You can't build a global distribution network for car charging on the hope there will be EVs to use it in the future, business doesn't work that way. When there is a proven adoption trend beyond the luxury market, now companies can run numbers which are based on reality to pitch investors on opportunities to create the infrastructure to address all of those concerns.

The problem isn't just a mindset issue, it's that it's been repeatedly debunked by reality. The Tesla Roadster (Luxury toy) would never sell, because you can't charge it anywhere. The Model S (Mainstream Luxury Sedan) will never sell, you might have 200 miles range, but you can't drive it on trips! Tesla built a global supercharger network to allow their cars to travel curated routes within every major market. The Model X (Mainstream Luxury SUV) will never sell, the supercharger network is too small and you can't use it in cities! Tesla increased investment in expansion of the supercharger network globally.

The Model 3 when delivered will prove that not only is this a fallacious argument, but will provide the hard data conservative investors need to quantify, and qualify the risk to and investment of their capital in replacing or augmenting the gasoline distribution network.
 
#26 ·
Quote:
Originally Posted by dantoddd View Post

we're only one breakthrough in battery technology away from making the gasoline engine obsolete.
First you need the breakthrough, and then it needs to be proven for mass manufacture and the production needs to scale. Needs to be cost effective. Reliable. If all of those are met, then you have to compete with already growing Lithium battery production.

You also need to hope charging infrastructure is there to allow demand for your batteries to exist.

No, the ICE will be around for a while. Especially when you recognize the oil industry has vested interests.
 
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