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[PCGamer]DRAM prices could skyrocket after already doubling in the last year - Page 7

post #61 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpacemanSpliff View Post

Only problem with that comparison is that 5 years ago the 16GB would have likely been DDR3-1600, maybe 1866 or 2133, and today it's a generation newer and it's likely 3 to 4 times faster ram. Also... if you're literally talking about the same kit, companies are producing far less DDR3 today, so the supply has dwindled along with the demand, as most people are going to systems that use DDR4. But prices and taxes vary from one market and country to another, as supply and demand do regionally and nationally as well. The same DDR3-1600 4x4GB kit I bought for $150 USD in April of 2012 is now only $120 USD.

He's pointing out that ram had progressively decreased in cost and now it's increasing in cost for the same amount of ram. The speed and and type of ram is not relevant since its value should be based on the standards of the time.

The main difference I see is even with 4 - 8gb of system ram a modern computer is not ram starved. For most users. Even 10 years ago most people could get more ram and see a noticeable improvement in their systems performance. Today it's icing on the cake for most users and the cases of needing more then 4 - 8gb of system ram are usually work related.
     
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post #62 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chargeit View Post

The speed and and type of ram is not relevant since its value should be based on the standards of the time.

Actually... In the PC world, ram prices are probably the most fluid and accurate example of all the intricacies of supply, demand, overhead, and economy of scale. For the most part, ram is all essentially the same wafers, the biggest difference is the speed and stability of the individual chips, and how many sticks/chips can be binned together without the memory being unstable. We see the same happen as the faster and more reliably performing GPUs get binned for the higher end aftermarket OC cards, A perfect example of this is the kingpin edition EVGAs, they actually package and sell them with a slightly slower stock clock than the other high end aftermarket cards, but they're binned and tested to guarantee they have the stability to hit and maintain a set % overclock. The higher the level of performance, the rare each individual unit becomes. Scarcity and demand, even if desktop enthusiast users weren't the smallest market for DRAM, would still drive prices up.

In regard to the low end of the binned chips, the overhead costs of producing individual units generally stays true for the most part to the laws of economy of scale. The course of action they likely take and which makes the most fiscal sense from a business perspective, is to set the baseline price of the lower binned tiers of production runs to a fixed % of the overhead. Specifically one that is sufficient to guarantee their overall net returns lead to achieving the majority of the profit margin they wish to reach for the whole run. Is that sale price always going to remain the same? No. It depends on many factors, including the cost of R&D, raw materials, and operating overhead during production, the scale of the production runs based on the forecast of demand in the marketplace, the costs of marketing and distribution, etc...
Edited by SpacemanSpliff - 9/24/17 at 12:04pm
post #63 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpacemanSpliff View Post

Actually... In the PC world, ram prices are probably the most fluid and accurate example of all the intricacies of supply, demand, overhead, and economy of scale. For the most part, ram is all essentially the same wafers, the biggest difference is the speed and stability of the individual chips, and how many sticks/chips can be binned together without the memory being unstable. We see the same happen as the faster and more reliably performing GPUs get binned for the higher end aftermarket OC cards, A perfect example of this is the kingpin edition EVGAs, they actually package and sell them with a slightly slower stock clock than the other high end aftermarket cards, but they're binned and tested to guarantee they have the stability to hit and maintain a set % overclock. The higher the level of performance, the rare each individual unit becomes. Scarcity and demand, even if desktop enthusiast users weren't the smallest market for DRAM, would still drive prices up.

In regard to the low end of the binned chips, the overhead costs of producing individual units generally stays true for the most part to the laws of economy of scale. The course of action they likely take and which makes the most fiscal sense from a business perspective, is to set the baseline price of the lower binned tiers of production runs to a fixed % of the overhead. Specifically one that is sufficient to guarantee their overall net returns lead to achieving the majority of the profit margin they wish to reach for the whole run. Is that sale price always going to remain the same? No. It depends on many factors, including the cost of R&D, raw materials, and operating overhead during production, the scale of the production runs based on the forecast of demand in the marketplace, the costs of marketing and distribution, etc...

How about making a point without filling it with irrelevant bull next time.

Ram costs should decrease over time for the same amount of ram not increase.
     
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post #64 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpacemanSpliff View Post

Only problem with that comparison is that 5 years ago the 16GB would have likely been DDR3-1600, maybe 1866 or 2133, and today it's a generation newer and it's likely 3 to 4 times faster ram. Also... if you're literally talking about the same kit, companies are producing far less DDR3 today, so the supply has dwindled along with the demand, as most people are going to systems that use DDR4. But prices and taxes vary from one market and country to another, as supply and demand do regionally and nationally as well.... The same DDR3-1600 4x4GB kit I bought for $150 USD in April of 2012 is now only $120 USD.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chargeit View Post

How about making a point without filling it with irrelevant bull next time.

Ram costs should decrease over time for the same amount of ram not increase.

See the above, underline and italics added for emphasis. DDR3 is a stagnant market, little if any new production, because the demand is no longer there. Of course there's surplus so the price is down... The same is not true with the market for DDR4, and GDDR5/X... The market for those are in a state of constant flux, so that can cause the selling price to rise and fall with the rise and fall of the demand for it dictates the amount produced. Everything I said was relevant, albeit I give you that it was longer winded. Perhaps Senioritis or Springbreakitis impaired you from being able to pay attention in economics class?
Edited by SpacemanSpliff - 9/24/17 at 1:00pm
post #65 of 71
Supply low, price increase, more fabs, supply high, price low, fabs bankrupt, supply low... etc welcome to the memory fab industry
post #66 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpacemanSpliff View Post


See the above, underline and italics added for emphasis. DDR3 is a stagnant market, little if any new production, because the demand is no longer there. Of course there's surplus so the price is down... The same is not true with the market for DDR4, and GDDR5/X... The market for those are in a state of constant flux, so that can cause the selling price to rise and fall with the rise and fall of the demand for it dictates the amount produced. Everything I said was relevant, albeit I give you that it was longer winded. Perhaps Senioritis or Springbreakitis impaired you from being able to pay attention in economics class?

Let me help you. Supply and demand.

Let me point you back to my original response to your post,
Quote:
He's pointing out that ram had progressively decreased in cost and now it's increasing in cost for the same amount of ram. The speed and and type of ram is not relevant since its value should be based on the standards of the time.
     
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post #67 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chargeit View Post

Let me help you. Supply and demand.

Let me point you back to my original response to your post,

Again part of supply and demand determines production forecasts, and all the rest is a result of that. The higher the forecast, the more you produce, the greater the economy of scale works in your benefit with lower per unit cost to allow you to lower the base price of sale. The smaller the production forecast and scale of economy of production, the higher your unit cost is, the higher the baseline price point is... Have you ever worked for a manufacturing company? It doesn't seem so...
post #68 of 71
While supply and demand is the major factor for determining profit margins, don't forget greed.
     
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post #69 of 71
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lady Fitzgerald View Post

While supply and demand is the major factor for determining profit margins, don't forget greed.

I am not sure what greed even means when discussing price and supply and demand?

The entire point of thinking in terms of supply and demand is making the most money you can based on the supply available and the demand for whatever you are selling (you try to sell everything you have at the highest price you can sell all of them for).

Corporations are legally obligated to make as much money as possible, if anyone makes a decision that obviously hurts profits they can be sued. Greed doesn't come into it (or is built-in from before anyone made any decisions).

Now, whether or not this is a good model to base society on is debatable but blaming "greed" for pricing is missunderstanding the situation. Anyone who set pricing significantly below the optimal point in a supply demand curve would be fired. Humans are out of the equation so calling it greed isn't correct; this is our system, amoral as it is.
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post #70 of 71
This won't help. The Si wafers alone will cost millions a year per medium sized fab. Bare Si wafers are a significant cost of manufacturing memory.
https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20170922PD204.html

Also a sign that memory manufactures are not holding back supply if their suppliers are running out of product. That thought is absurd. If you can make money off a product a company should sell it and take the market share. The smaller memory manufactures w/o scale and market share are the ones no longer in business.
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