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[Jon Peddie] Add-in board GPU market increased by 21.5% in Q3 2017

post #1 of 13
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jon Peddie Reports 
"The add-in graphics board market was outstanding in Q3'17, increasing 29.1% sequentially [over Q2'17]. The market shares for the desktop discrete GPU suppliers shifted in the quarter by a few percentage points in Nvidia’s favor. [...] Cryptocurrency mining was not as big influence in the AIB market this quarter as it was in the last. Nonetheless, cryptocurrency mining (especially Ethereum) is still a factor in the market, and still just as impossible to accurately measure.



Note that unlike the Steam Survey, this report covers GPU shipments. That means that whether a card ends up crypto-mining in some abandoned Chinese warehouse 100% of the time or merely playing Overwatch on an individual gamer's' PC, it still gets counted.

Also, the only major GPU launch by either company during the Q3 2017 time frame was AMD's Vega back in mid/late August, but as we all know it shipped so few units in its first 6 weeks that it clearly didn't make any kind of dent in the aggregate numbers.

SOURCE
Edited by svenge - 11/22/17 at 3:29am
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post #2 of 13

Wouldn't a 2% fluctuation be within the margin of error? 21% of the same, is still the same.

post #3 of 13
Thread Starter 
It wouldn't have any more margin of error than the shipment numbers of a recording artist's CD as reported in the RIAA's Gold/Platinum/Diamond certification system. The methodology behind professional industry reports like these (regardless of the type of business) is much more far-reaching and rigorous, and is closer to a census than a typical representative survey given to individuals.
Edited by svenge - 11/22/17 at 3:25am
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post #4 of 13
So basically with AMD's vega being not the top end people wanted, and with miners not buying as many GPUs as they used to, the market looks like it shows overall, with nvidia leading the pack.
I wonder how much of the market the mining blowout helped AMD (I'm sure nvidia enjoyed that as well of course).
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post #5 of 13
Thread Starter 
Vega
Quote:
Originally Posted by Defoler View Post

So basically with AMD's vega being not the top end people wanted, and with miners not buying as many GPUs as they used to, the market looks like it shows overall, with nvidia leading the pack.
I wonder how much of the market the mining blowout helped AMD (I'm sure nvidia enjoyed that as well of course).

Vega's relative failure really didn't have much to do with it, as it only came in mid-quarter and any company's highest card usually comes in relatively small numbers at initial launch. As for the impact of miners, while it's impossible to quantify exactly it most certainly was significant. To quote the previous quarter's report, Peddie said:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jon Peddie 
"The GPU and PC market had been showing a return to normal seasonality. That pattern is typically flat to down in Q1, a significant drop in Q2 as OEMs and the channel deplete inventory before the summer months. A restocking with the latest products in Q3 in anticipation of the holiday season, and mild increase to flat change in Q4. All, of that subject to an overall decline in the PC market since the great recession of ’07 and the influx of tablets and smartphones. However, this year, Q2 AIB shipments were completely out of synch, and remarkably high. This is the first time in over 9 years that Q2 has seen an increase in shipments, and never one this dramatic. The big difference is the impact cryptocurrency mining (especially Ethereum) is having on the market.

Seeing that Q2 2017 was up 30.9% sequentially over Q1 2017 (which is unprecedented), and increased 34.9% year-to-year over Q2 2016, I'd guess that perhaps 1/4 of the GPU market at that time was crypto-mining based. This would make sense numerically, as an increase of 35% can be seen as being 135% of the previous year, or just over 4/3rds. 1/3 is a quarter of 4/3 by definition, so assuming that there wasn't much increase in demand on the gaming side (or conversely gamers being totally deterred from buying cards instead of merely moving down the product range to find a card within their budget), 25% of the total demand in terms of units shipped being from mining sounds about right.

Either way the GPU market seems to be slowly starting to calm down a bit in terms of mining demand though, so I'll see how this current quarter fares before making any more guesses or predictions.
Edited by svenge - 11/22/17 at 3:50am
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post #6 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by svenge View Post

Vega
Vega's relative failure really didn't have much to do with it, as it only came in mid-quarter and any company's highest card usually comes in relatively small numbers at initial launch. As for the impact of miners, while it's impossible to quantify exactly it most certainly was significant. To quote the previous quarter's report, Peddie said:
Seeing that Q2 2017 was up 30.9% sequentially over Q1 2017 (which is unprecedented), and increased 34.9% year-to-year over Q2 2016, I'd guess that perhaps 1/4 of the GPU market at that time was crypto-mining based. This would make sense numerically, as an increase of 35% can be seen as being 135% of the previous year, or just over 4/3rds. 1/3 is a quarter of 4/3 by definition, so assuming that there wasn't much increase in demand on the gaming side (or conversely gamers being totally deterred from buying cards instead of merely moving down the product range to find a card within their budget), 25% of the total demand in terms of units shipped being from mining sounds about right.

Either way the GPU market seems to be slowly starting to calm down a bit in terms of mining demand though, so I'll see how this current quarter fares before making any more guesses or predictions.

Since I was referring to the article's Q3 numbers, I think you are a bit off in the claim about Q3.

Q1 and Q2 increase in dGPU could be more related by cryptocurrency which is true, but a lot less in Q3. Especially with the claim that stocks are being held for the holiday season, so such a big increase over Q3 from previous year when new GPUs were also release, doesn't make sense to claim it just about cryptocurrency. Especially since no crypto related cards were released that cause the mining companies to rush for purchase.

So what makes more sense that sales post-wait for AMD's answer, including new game releases, makes more sense than just blaming it all on cryptocurrency for the rise of Q3.
Mining has an impact, but not such a big impact in Q3 now that the mining purchases has reduced dramatically after Q2.
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post #7 of 13
I was waiting for Vega. Day of release I finally realized there was no Vega combination good enough for new 4k, so I went with NVidia. But I did wait and enough others may have as well to cause a jump.
post #8 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by rluker5 View Post

I was waiting for Vega. Day of release I finally realized there was no Vega combination good enough for new 4k, so I went with NVidia. But I did wait and enough others may have as well to cause a jump.

That is a valid observation, but your goal wasn't possible with any manufacturer's $500 price point card.
post #9 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by Particle View Post

That is a valid observation, but your goal wasn't possible with any manufacturer's $500 price point card.
I was looking to spend $1400. Spent $1600 instead. Not including the ebay mobo upgrade in anticipation of cfx Vega. All worked out for the best though.
post #10 of 13
Quote:
Originally Posted by rluker5 View Post

I was looking to spend $1400. Spent $1600 instead. Not including the ebay mobo upgrade in anticipation of cfx Vega. All worked out for the best though.

Oh, you're wanting to do multi-GPU. May science have mercy on your technophilic soul.
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