It's not going to require anywhere close to 30%
Originally Posted by chef098
<snip> I agree that they can be, but until Microsoft does something so horrid to lose another 30 percent of the market share this wont happen. The only way I see something like this happening is if OpenGL, not linux, becomes more viable as a way to develop games over DirectX. Based off of DX10 and DX11 it might be something that could happen. If developers dont see enough innovation coming from Direct X they might make it happen on their own.
I know it can be a pita to follow links and read an entire article so I'll just paste some relevant quotes from a Linux Magazine article I recently linked.
[/QUOTE]FROM LINUX MAG
Gaming company Wolfire has a great article on why they use OpenGL instead of DirectX (and why other companies should too). They write:
â€œGiven that OpenGL has less vendor support, is no longer used in games, is being actively attacked by Microsoft, and has no marketing momentum, why should we still use it? Wouldnâ€™t it be more profitable to ditch it and use DirectX like everyone else? No, because in reality, OpenGL is more powerful than DirectX, supports more platforms, and is essential for the future of gamesâ€¦ if you use OpenGL, you get faster and more powerful graphics features than DirectX 11, and you get them on all versions of Windows, Mac and Linux, as well as the PS3, Wii, PSP, DS, and iPhone. You also get these features in the rapidly-developing WebGL standard, which may become the foundation for the next generation of browser games.â€
Sign of things to come?
There are signs that things are starting to change, however. Recently, gaming company Unknown Worlds Entertainment discussed plans for a native Linux version of their Spark engine. Technical Director Max McGuire wrote:
â€œCurrently our engine and tools only work on Windows, and that will be the only platform Natural Selection 2 will be available on at release. However, most of the engine is not platform specific. The largest Windows-specific piece is the low level rendering code which is built on Direct3D. In the interest of having our engine run on Linux and OS X someday, this low level rendering code is wrapped up so that itâ€™s mostly separate from the rest of the engine. With a small amount of effort, we can swap out this piece with an OpenGL implementation that will work on Linux and OS X. All of our tools are built using the cross-platform wxWidgets framework, so once we get the engine working on another platform, bringing the tools over wonâ€™t be too much work.â€
That would be a great thing indeed. Wolfire has already released one game for Linux called Lugaru, with its sequel Overgrowth currently in Alpha stage of development.
More recently, Valve announced that it would be releasing Mac versions of their games, including the popular Steam game deliver system. This will also include their proprietary gaming engine, ironically named Source.
They are able to do this easily, because they made the decision to support OpenGL as well as DirectX in their engine.
Director of development John Cook said that Valve will be treating the Mac as a tier-1 platform, with all future games released at the same time for all supported platforms. Unfortunately, this does not yet include Linux. What this means though, is that with just 5% market share Mac is becoming a popular enough platform for gaming companies to support it. If the marketshare of Linux warranted the move, it would be relatively simple for a company such as Valve to release their games for Linux also. With companies porting their engines to OpenGL and games to a Unix operating system, half of the battle is already won for Linux. What remains is that ever elusive market share.
Although nobody can argue with the fact that DX 9 was and still is huge, DX 10 did little and has been used only sparingly by dame devs and yet already DX 11 is out. Doesn't that strike you as odd?
There are too many billions of dollars at stake in the gaming market for companies to not see the writing on the wall that Microsoft is planning to take over that market too just like they have done with so many others. If they wish to survive they can't let that happen.
Seriously, given a choice would you rather be a sheep or a wolf?
PS I really must learn how to create quotes from other sources