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How will Nvidia counter the 4870X2 - Page 2

post #11 of 68
Nvidia has gotta slash prices, no way out of it. They need the GTX260 to be less than $300 to compete with the 4870. The 9800gtx+ is not gonna save 'em. As for the GTX280 it needs to fall below $500 quick or the 4870X2 is gonna eat it alive, especially if it is cheaper.
post #12 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by StrictNine View Post
could they make a gtx260 gx2 ?
Not it in its current state, no. It's way too big to fit on one PCB. Sure they could try to do dual PCBs again, but then there's still problems with power requirements, thermal output, and perhaps most importantly: cost. The market for a $650 card is small already, and I can guarantee you that the market for a $1000+ card is even smaller than that. They wouldn't waste the time and money developing it if there weren't going to be enough people to buy it in order to get back the development costs. The only thing they could perhaps do is make a GX2 model of one of the GT200 derivatives. However at this point it will probably lack the power needed to go up against 4870X2.

Nvidia really played right into AMD's hands. If you look at the progression of the rumors around RV770, it started off as being a relatively small upgrade to the HD3k series. Then all of a sudden, the SP count went up from 480 to 800 and in a very short period of time it went from looking like RV770 was just a midrange part and there would be no answer to GTX200 to the HD4870 effectively rendering the GTX260 useless and questioning the price/performance of the GTX280.

It would be naive to not consider that AMD could have intentionally spread false rumors initially to make Nvidia feel relatively "safe" with some small architectural improvements and additional hardware. Even now they are intentionally downplaying their cards by positioning the HD4870 as the 9800GTX's competitor rather than the HD4850 (see the official slides, they all say 4870 is the 9800GTX's competitor). We all know that the 9800GTX is hardly any competition at all for the HD4870, and the same goes for the HD4850 and the 8-series (*haven't seen any results vs 8800Ultra). Even the 9800GTX+ is hardly a big threat to the HD4850's position because factory overclocked versions are due around the same time as the GTX+ is set to debut.

The intentional mis-positioning is having the precise effect that AMD wanted: They have put Nvidia into a situation where because of underestimating RV770, not only are they getting nailed on price, they're barely leading on performance, but they're also left with nothing obvious to counter with. Sure there's GT200b, but I have serious doubts that it will reduce production costs enough to price their cards right. And even if I'm wrong, I think that AMD has plenty of room to lower the 4870's price.

If they had something to react to the 4870X2, they would have said something already. Because in the meantime, ATI is getting a ton of attention and praise in the direction of it's new chips while at the same time the GTX280 is seen as a colossal waste of money. More importantly, it's looking as if ATI is about to see a pretty significant increase in marketshare and this is something Nvidia cannot let happen if they want CUDA to take off. Sure announcing something now what definitely cut into GTX280's sales, but honestly how much do they expect to sell anyway?
Edited by darkcloud89 - 6/28/08 at 1:20pm
post #13 of 68
Quote:
Originally Posted by verbatim81973 View Post
Nvidia has gotta slash prices, no way out of it. They need the GTX260 to be less than $300 to compete with the 4870. The 9800gtx+ is not gonna save 'em. As for the GTX280 it needs to fall below $500 quick or the 4870X2 is gonna eat it alive, especially if it is cheaper.
There is nothing to save.
post #14 of 68
Best thing for nvidia at this point is to go back to the drawing board. They thought they could reproduce the success of the 8 series by pumping it full of steroids, and as a result put out an 8800gtx with a larger die and thicker memory interface. Not a horrible idea on paper, but the results are less than impressive.

Maybe the 55nm process will save the GTX200 series, maybe not. They should have not tried to beat ATI to market and spent time getting a more efficient chip, instead of pumping as much juice as they could into a prototype.

I think ATI has won this round fairly convincingly. I'm sure Nvidia has something up their sleeve but their drama w/ Intel and the HD4000x2 series coming out, they may be heading for some unpleasant rejection from the performance consumer.

But, that's a small market. It's a very small percentage of either companies business. ATI survived the 8 series just fine. Nvidia will survive the HD4k series.
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post #15 of 68
IMHO the 4870x2 will only fail if it suffers from sort of horrible design or HW compatibility issue(s). There is something that has bothered me a little, as strapped for cash as AMD is right now why don't they charge a little more for their graphics cards? As powerful as the RV770pro/XT are why not milk it just a little? Perhaps they know Nvidia has something up their sleeves, G200b/G92b may be more than just a shrink it might add some other functionality or performance tweaks? <- All speculation so please don't jump me

http://www.xtremesystems.org/forums/...d.php?t=192759

Quote:
Originally Posted by Theta
Any new information?

Got 4 dead(4870s) here, as well.

To fuel the fire and speculation, both sets we have died in Crossfire mode. (may be a trend from the looks of it)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimmyz
This is indeed a bummer of a thread, but keep in mind a problem caused by a bad flash can be corrected by a proper flash. in a little while the software should be out to fix the cards up, more than likely it is going to involve a pci card boot and flash or similar, but it should be correctable.

I feel the culprit is not realising that you can't add voltage to the cards through bios,( only about .01v) so the speeds won't boot. then when the card gets powered down and tries to reboot it lacks the voltage to do so properly. could someone please report back the vcore on boot of a "dead" card. and some hi-res photos of the bottom of the card in the voltage area..
Quote:
Originally Posted by Miwo
I am thinking DDR5 is the culprit

Remember that you are pushing the memory twice as hard with every MHz vs the DDR3 on the 4850s
900Mhz = 3.6GHz
1000MHz = 4.0GHz
1100Mhz = 4.4GHz

Guess killed his 4870 almost instantly by going to 1200MHz
http://www.xtremesystems.org/forums/...d.php?t=192696
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimmyz
I 've been reading up all day I feel now the GDDR5 is going belly up most of the people have clocked up in ccc or flashed. I think the ram is dying, could be way off but I wouldn't overclock one until we all know for sure.

I also updated the 4850 bios first post to reflect that it most likely will kill a 4870.

Even the people I talked with outside of XS are reporting many dead cards... surely something besides the flash is killing them. most outside of this forum never saw the flash option.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jimmyz
We are all still at a loss as to the cause for this.I mean we know ATI must have tested their own CCC yet many cards have died just using it, and some even stock. all we can do right now is try different things and see what may be causing it, so we know where the issue is.

Unless we eliminate some things from the list we are just spinning our wheels.

has anyone tried flipping the pal/ ntsc switch on the card?
has anyone tried the other port for the monitor?
has anyone tried booting with no power to see if the pwer message shows up?
has anyone tried the command line W1zzard posted a page back?
has anyone tried anything I left out?

any more advice? all input is needed at this point and be honest about clocks and such , we aren't here to judge we just want to figure this out so you guys don't lose your cards. I know as well as anyone what that is like.
Jimmyz is working hard to come up with a solution, but it seems there may be some issues with this first round of 4870s(search XS others have killed their 4870s w/o any OC or Bios flash). In all fairness I should mention that I've read GTX 280 has also suffered from it's own share of issues dying from overheating/ect.

Word to the wise do not flash or OC your 4870 just yet... Wait till the problems have been sorted. I wanted to see some 1gb models before making any potential upgrade decisions so this news doesn't directly affect me, but it may affect others who have one or two 4870s in their possession.
Edited by MasterKromm - 6/28/08 at 9:38pm
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post #16 of 68
Ya got to love how AMD has caused a price war in the GPU and CPU market. If it wasn't for them, we'd still be paying for $700 Pentium 4's. And now they are making the GPU market work for them.
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post #17 of 68
nVidia will probably do the same as they did with the 9800GX2. Slap together 2 GTX 280 Quick'n Dirty style.
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post #18 of 68
Thread Starter 
Quote:
Originally Posted by MasterKromm View Post
IMHO the 4870x2 will only fail if it suffers from sort of horrible design or HW compatibility issue(s). There is something that has bothered me a little, as strapped for cash as AMD is right now why don't they charge a little more for their graphics cards? As powerful as the RV770pro/XT are why not milk it just a little? Perhaps they know Nvidia has something up their sleeves, G200b/G92b may be more than just a shrink it might add some other functionality or performance tweaks? <- All speculation so please don't jump me

http://www.xtremesystems.org/forums/...d.php?t=192759














Jimmyz is working hard to come up with a solution, but it seems there may be some issues with this first round of 4870s(search XS others have killed their 4870s w/o any OC or Bios flash). In all fairness I should mention that I've read GTX 280 has also suffered from it's own share of issues dying from overheating/ect.

Word to the wise do not flash or OC your 4870 just yet... Wait till the problems have been sorted. I wanted to see some 1gb models before making any potential upgrade decisions so this news doesn't directly affect me, but it may affect others who have one or two 4870s in their possession.
Thanks for the heads up.
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post #19 of 68
Remember how the 3870x2 got hit to the ground???...i'm confident nvidia will have a similar surprise in this case too.
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post #20 of 68
They won't.
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