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Intel CPU Prediction thru 2023 - Page 2

post #11 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by xd_1771 View Post
I really doubt the number of cores will scale up that much
Maybe it's just me but yeah


You knows funny?


We talk about computers taking up entire rooms in the fifties, and they said: Oh we will never have a computer that is portable (laptop) or small enough to keep one under our TV.



and when my kids are learning about computers (if they are interested lol) they will be like "dad, do you remember dual core CPU's?"

Me, " you will never believe this, but I actually have a working one in our basement!"


I asked my dad what is like to run DOS on on a 100mhz 486, and he was like here: "lets boot my old packard bell up." (this was a few years ago) but he installed windows ME also and it ran pretty well, boots faster than a lot of peoples computers I've worked on **granted it was a fresh install vs. a porn infested HP computer running vista 64bit with 512mb of DDR ram lol.
post #12 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Master Chief View Post
You knows funny?


We talk about computers taking up entire rooms in the fifties, and they said: Oh we will never have a computer that is portable (laptop) or small enough to keep one under our TV.



and when my kids are learning about computers (if they are interested lol) they will be like "dad, do you remember dual core CPU's?"

Me, " you will never believe this, but I actually have a working one in our basement!"


I asked my dad what is like to run DOS on on a 100mhz 486, and he was like here: "lets boot my old packard bell up." (this was a few years ago) but he installed windows ME also and it ran pretty well, boots faster than a lot of peoples computers I've worked on **granted it was a fresh install vs. a porn infested HP computer running vista 64bit with 512mb of DDR ram lol.
Coolstorybro.
post #13 of 29
LOL @ OP

But in all seriousness, I am not excited at all about the continued move towards parallel processing (ie more cores instead of faster speeds) since most of the gamers/programs that most people use can barely use 4 cores, let alone 6/8/12/etc.
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post #14 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by brandontaz2k2 View Post
Coolstorybro.
original.

I wouldnt be surprised to see more processors slots being more common utilizing 2 6+ cores at the same time.

Especially as the price of all this shenanigans drops even more.
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post #15 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by reflex99 View Post
i dont think ram will move that fast
samsung has already perfected ddr4 for the desktop, so I dont see why we wont have ddr5 in that long ?
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post #16 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3M0N5T3R View Post
samsung has already perfected ddr4 for the desktop, so I dont see why we wont have ddr5 in that long ?
ya but it will not hit mainstream for probably 2 years from now and then last 3-5 years.
    
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post #17 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3M0N5T3R View Post
samsung has already perfected ddr4 for the desktop, so I dont see why we wont have ddr5 in that long ?
maybe they will move to something more speedy like L1 cache memory? (if i recall, its rather fast etc, but pricey to produce. aka why you dont have a cpu with 1GB of L1 cache) but in 12 years.. maybe?
    
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post #18 of 29
And in 2023 I will still be using my E8400 because I love it too much. Oh, and I won't need anything else. >_>
    
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post #19 of 29
i don't expect the cores to go all the way to 256.
nor do i expect the manufacturing technology to go any lower than 10nm.
by then, you won't need fans anyways...
post #20 of 29
Quote:
Originally Posted by fmofmofmo View Post
What do you expected for the near future?

Just for fun, I made simple and stupid linear projections for a 300$ CPU from now to 2023

2011 - SB2600 - 4 core - 8Mb L3 - 32nm - USB 2.0 - PCI 2.0 - SATA 6Gbs - DDR3 @ 1333
2012 - Ivy Brige - 6 core - 12Mb L3 - 22nm - USB 3.0 - PCI 3.0 - SATA 6Gbs - DDR3 @ 1600
2013 - Haswell - 8 core - 12Mb L3 - 22nm - USB 3.0 - PCI 3.0 - SATA 6Gbs - DDR4
2014 - Rockwell - 12 core - 16Mb L3 - 16nm - USB 3.0 - PCI 3.0 - SATA 6Gbs - DDR4
2015 - Gen A tick - 16 core - 16Mb L3 - 16nm - USB 3.0 - PCI 3.0 - SATA 12Gbs - DDR4
2016 - Gen A tock - 24 core - 24Mb L3 - 11nm - USB 3.0 - PCI 3.0 - SATA 12Gbs - DDR4
2017 - Gen B tick - 32 core - 24Mb L3 - 11nm - USB 3.0 - PCI 4.0 - SATA 12Gbs - DDR5
2018 - Gen B tock - 48 core - 32Mb L3 - 8nm - USB 3.0 - PCI 4.0 - SATA 12Gbs - DDR5
2019 - Gen C tick - 64 core - 32Mb L3 - 8nm - USB 4.0 - PCI 4.0 - SATA 24Gbs - DDR5
2020 - Gen C tock - 96 core - 48Mb L3 - 5nm - USB 4.0 - PCI 4.0 - SATA 24Gbs - DDR5
2021 - Gen D tick - 128 core - 48Mb L3 - 5nm - USB 4.0 - PCI 4.0 - SATA 24Gbs – DDR6
2022 - Gen D tock - 196 core - 64Mb L3 - 4nm - USB 4.0 - PCI 5.0 - SATA 24Gbs – DDR6
2023 - Gen E tick - 256 core - 64Mb L3 - 4nm - USB 4.0 - PCI 5.0 - SATA 48Gbs – DDR6
Nah. It really isn't that slow.

According to Kurtzwell's "The Age of Spiritual Machines",
In 2019, an average home computer will have the processing power of the human brain, which he assumes to be 20 PFLOPS.

Since 2600k has about 80 GFLOPS in processing power, the 2019 64-core version, even with substantial increases in performance per clock, would not have more than 2 TFLOPS in processing power.

Which is 10,000 times slower than Kurtzwell predicts.
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