post #11 of 11
1,000,000,000..... That's a lot of money, but even at $5 per license, it will be back in MS pocket inside two years. Android is free and after 5 years they would save 1-5 billion (depending on sales).

Here's another way to look at it. In the US, the median salary for a programmer is $54,000/year. Let's make that a cost to the company of $150,000/year. Nokia could hire 1111 programmers for SIX YEARS. If these developers were assigned to build applications for an app store, how many 1st party (and 100% return instead of ~30%) applications could be made? With the addition of hundreds of dedicated Nokia developers, a huge selection of quality applications could appear in a very short time.

If you look at a 10-year strategy where Nokia sells 100 million win phones per year, you get (at $5 per license) a total payout to MS of 5 billion. That's enough to pay $200,000/year for 5000 developers for 5 years.

While my developer illustration isn't necessarily practical (throwing people at a problem doesn't necessarily fix it) nor is it completely accurate (there are many other complexities) it does show that Nokia has other long term options.

This deal makes MS a fortune (both license and apps), gives away Nokia IP, and costs Nokia a fortune. I think that Nokia is nearly dead.