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[Salon] What happens when computers stop shrinking? - Page 5

post #41 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by Killam0n View Post
Quantum computers will form a self aware couscous network (ultimate AI) that takes over the world and prevent humans from destroying the AI's Planet.

OR

AI will see that it is much easier to build its self a massive space ship and nuke the planet from orbit and THEN re-settle the new planet after 100k years or so(radiation half life) with robots.
Skynet .
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post #42 of 73
We're in an age which is on the precipice of consumer cloud computing. When this happens, which it will, the size and power of the chip in a computer of any kind phone, desktop, console etc. will become irrelevant since computing power will be delivered, on demand, through the internet.

Then it becomes a much bigger question (than it already is) of performance:watt ratio for servers who host cloud computing solutions. Intel and AMD will try to shrink for as long as they can get away with it until they are forced to change solutions and move to graphene or such. Quantum computing is still a while or so off yet, and even if the technology increased at the same rate our current technology has, as well as become a viable computing platform for the consumer, all current software would need to be rewritten. I do not think it's unreasonable, however, for there to be some sort of x86 chip with a quantum coprocessor allowing the transition into quantum computing.

We shall see though.
post #43 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by voice View Post
We're in an age which is on the precipice of consumer cloud computing. When this happens, which it will, the size and power of the chip in a computer of any kind phone, desktop, console etc. will become irrelevant since computing power will be delivered, on demand, through the internet.

Then it becomes a much bigger question (than it already is) of performance:watt ratio for servers who host cloud computing solutions. Intel and AMD will try to shrink for as long as they can get away with it until they are forced to change solutions and move to graphene or such. Quantum computing is still a while or so off yet, and even if the technology increased at the same rate our current technology has, as well as become a viable computing platform for the consumer, all current software would need to be rewritten. I do not think it's unreasonable, however, for there to be some sort of x86 chip with a quantum coprocessor allowing the transition into quantum computing.

We shall see though.
I think you are looking in the correct direction, Microsoft already is moving their assets online, like all of them...

What that means is, if you want to use Software from Microsoft, you will have to access it online...

That's one sure way to kill piracy, let me tell ya...
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post #44 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phantom123 View Post
By the time 2020 comes other material will be used instead of silicon. So instead of having a chip of say 1billion transistors at 4ghz. You will have a chip of 100million at 5000ghz. It doesn't have to get smaller to be efficient. They need to just find more efficient material (which researchers have).
One can only hope that 5,000GHz is a core2/I7(P6) class and not a Pentium 4 class processor
    
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post #45 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by voice View Post
We're in an age which is on the precipice of consumer cloud computing. When this happens, which it will, the size and power of the chip in a computer of any kind phone, desktop, console etc. will become irrelevant since computing power will be delivered, on demand, through the internet.

Then it becomes a much bigger question (than it already is) of performance:watt ratio for servers who host cloud computing solutions. Intel and AMD will try to shrink for as long as they can get away with it until they are forced to change solutions and move to graphene or such. Quantum computing is still a while or so off yet, and even if the technology increased at the same rate our current technology has, as well as become a viable computing platform for the consumer, all current software would need to be rewritten. I do not think it's unreasonable, however, for there to be some sort of x86 chip with a quantum coprocessor allowing the transition into quantum computing.

We shall see though.
cloud computing. is a fail from the start


what if one does not have access to INTERNET
also with the DATA overages coming it will cost you per month.

plus i am sure people rather have the physical hardware to resell it if they want to
    
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post #46 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by bluebunny View Post
Hmm interesting. 50 years is a long time to predict. We have no idea whats happening that far down the road
This is predicted according on moores law, exponential growth should last another 50 years.
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post #47 of 73
CPU's and GPU's will get so small, we can have over 9000 of them!
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post #48 of 73
When PC's stop shrinking we get bigger. (west region)
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post #49 of 73
It would be funny yet horrible if they're like, now that we can't get them any smaller, lets make them bigger again!
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post #50 of 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by DuckieHo View Post
The memory hierarchy is based on cost-benefit. Unless you can come up with memory that is faster and cheaper than current L1, there will always be levels.
That's my point, that if Static RAM was developed like Dynamic RAM has been - there would be no need for caches and Dynamic RAM. Even if Static RAM was more expensive, people would buy it just because of the massive boost in performance, because that is always the pattern. Fast hard drives are more expensive than slow hard drives, but people still buy fast hard drives; just like people will pay way more for SSD than HDD, just because of performance.

Quote:
Wear-leveling will always be need for NAND... even if you have NAND capable of 10M P/E. There is a performance benefit of distributing data.
I don't know - because we do not know of the future devepment of NAND, or it's successors. SSD will become the ultimate replacement for HDD once it overcomes these issues, because for applications like large SQL databases, wear leveling (and wear) is a very real issue that makes it a bust.

I can see better forms of technology, like FRAM, which would more closely approximate HDD technology, coming to the fore - simply because wear leveling and write cycles are a large issue in Enterprise environments.

It used to be at one time, EEPROMs were only good for a handful of cycles, but now, they are rated in the thousands of cycles, all because of improvements. This will be the same with NAND, because people will still want to have applications that make heavy use of the drive, and if NAND fails - then they will migrate to whatever successor can prove to be reliable and overcome the problems.

It is like memory. At one time, memory required 1 Amp per MB for power - which would mean that Joe Average would need to shove 4,000 Amps into their current rig. But those problems were overcome, RAM became much more power thrifty, and I would think it is more like 1 Amp per GB these days.
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