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[DM]FBI Shuts down 3 major poker sites - Page 18

post #171 of 186
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vagrant Storm View Post
I guess it is just hard for me to trust something like this...if you want to play poker you should go to a casino. You can't go too far in the US and not find one. I could personally code a client to only select the cards I wanted to give you. There is just too much room for under handed tactics. One of the other players at the "table" could easily be a person working for the site that is programmed to win more than lose.

It is just like video lottery in South Dakota. All the machines are networked together and are programmed to payout 49% of the time and that means 51% of the time the state makes money. However, this is a regulated system (that could be under handed as well, but less likely). There is nothing to regulate any online gambling site beyond the owner of the site. If they feel like they need more money...all they got to do is take yours. They of corse have to let some people win to keep others interested, so I am not surprised to hear that some people have made money.
While this is true to an extent it would be ridiculously bad business for the sites to do it. They make millions from the rake and tournament fees anyway and to risk all their legitimate revenue for a few extras bucks would be foolish.

In poker the casino/website makes the same amount of money no matter which player wins so their number one interested is fairness to maintain player trust. These aren't tiny companies, they are billion dollar multinationals.

Attempts have been made to cheap online poker before and they have been found out due to the diligence of the players. People that play for huge sums on the internet tend to take it pretty seriously.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vagrant Storm View Post
I guess it is just hard for me to trust something like this...if you want to play poker you should go to a casino.
People said the same thing about internet shopping. The internet has enabled a much wider audience to enjoy the competition of playing a skill game for money. It is no different than holding a chess tournament with an entry fee and prizes and the fact that it had been victimized because people don't understand it is unfair.
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post #172 of 186
Quote:
Originally Posted by Vagrant Storm View Post
I guess it is just hard for me to trust something like this...if you want to play poker you should go to a casino. You can't go too far in the US and not find one. I could personally code a client to only select the cards I wanted to give you. There is just too much room for under handed tactics. One of the other players at the "table" could easily be a person working for the site that is programmed to win more than lose.
For some people, a legal cardroom is a short drive away. For others, it's not. If you're in New York, the nearest legal options are in Connecticut or New Jersey. If you live in South Carolina, your nearest options are in Mississippi or Pennsylvania. If you only want to play for a few hours, you'll spend more time traveling than playing.

As for the fairness of games... could you code your client so that it only gives me the cards you want me to have, while simultaneously maintaining a statistically random distribution over hundreds of thousands of hands? Every online poker client enabled its users to look at their hand history (an event log of everything that the player saw during a specific hand). Most serious players used software that organized those hand histories, allowing them to find and address their own weaknesses; the hand histories also lent themselves to statistical calculations that were crucial in catching cheaters and keeping the games honest.
    
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post #173 of 186
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stevinchy View Post
Really sorry to all the OCN members whose livelihoods have been taken, hopefully you will have US only sites run by the big casinos soon enough. I just disappointed us euro grinders wont be allowed in for the feeding frenzy that will be.
Online Poker is already legal in Washington:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinio...wOE_story.html

The sites that will be launched will be mostly run and TAXED by the government. So, you have to wonder about the timing with taking down FTP and PS, shortly after Online Poker was legalized.
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post #174 of 186
People freak out too much. The USA can't take players money. They can only take what the company has. The rest has to go back to customers and employees first. Exploiting crap is what got the sites in trouble.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cesaro Summability View Post
Pretty outrageous what happened. I mean online gambling became illegal when they tacked it on to the Port Security bill back in 2006, with absolutely NO public debate. Sneaking last minute amendments onto bills is disgraceful.

I suggest everyone watch Casino Jack, and the United States of Money to get an idea just how shady it was that the online gaming was done in this way. It basically shows how corrupt the system is.

Poker isn't really Gambling in the traditional sense, since you are competing against players not the house, there is also no inherent advantage in poker. If one plays the game correct, they are GUARANTEED to make money in the long run.
Wow, um no. Lets play a game of poker some time. You play correctly and I'll play correctly. According to your statement we are both guaranteed to make money. Where does this magical money we are making come from?
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post #175 of 186
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kirmie View Post
People freak out too much. The USA can't take players money. They can only take what the company has. The rest has to go back to customers and employees first. Exploiting crap is what got the sites in trouble.



Wow, um no. Lets play a game of poker some time. You play correctly and I'll play correctly. According to your statement we are both guaranteed to make money. Where does this magical money we are making come from?

The thing you're not taking into account is that the most optimal way to play is entirely based upon how your opponent is playing. Past the basic rules of the game, there is so much strategy / meta game that even if you play correctly, I absolutely guarantee you will get crushed by someone who knows what they are doing.

Poker is about adjusting to your opponents, creating a table image you can use to exploit opponents, putting them on a range (how many hands they play allows you to determine what cards they're holding) thinking on 3rd and 4th levels (what do they think I think they have, etc), and that's just scratching the surface.


You play what you think is correct and I'll absolutely play you heads up
Edited by secretsexyninja - 4/29/11 at 2:45pm
post #176 of 186
In theory, people can play optimally against each other, but only if the cards are face up. In that case, the players lose an equal amount to the site in rake. Neither profits.

The statement "poker is a skill game" is far too simple of a description. There are many types of "games" within poker: cash vs. tournament is the biggest subdivision of poker, and there are numerous subdivisions within those.

Some subdivisions are more skill games than others. For example, there was a popular tournament style called double-or-nothings, where 10 people started a tournament and the top 5 won double the buyin. The problem with this type of poker game was that it was too close to being solveable, and thus even the best players were only winning at 1-3% return on investment. When the best players in the game can't win at a rate higher than that, they have to play massive volume to make a profit, and in effect, most of the money in the player pool eventually ends up going to the site as rake.

As people have gotten better, everyone's winrates have gone down, and before this, they were decreasing daily. The best will always be able to profit in the long run, but as the break-even players get better and the losing players quit, the definition of "skill" changes. In a player pool of only competent players, any expected skill edge will take much longer to actualize, and thus everyone has to play more volume than they were previously to maintain the same profit. In other words, the luck factor dominates the short-run, and the short-run gets longer and longer.

This is why great players who had previously never had losing months/years were starting to have them. A sample size of 1000 multi-table tournaments used to be a great predictor of a player's actual skill edge, and now it's laughed at as meaningless as a predictor of future winrate. When people ask "what's a good sample size to determine my winrate?" the answer has been steadily increasing.

I still think it's a game of skill, but it's not as clear-cut as proponents of the game advocate, or want to believe.
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post #177 of 186
Quote:
Originally Posted by littledonny View Post
In theory, people can play optimally against each other, but only if the cards are face up. In that case, the players lose an equal amount to the site in rake. Neither profits.

The statement "poker is a skill game" is far too simple of a description. There are many types of "games" within poker: cash vs. tournament is the biggest subdivision of poker, and there are numerous subdivisions within those.

Some subdivisions are more skill games than others. For example, there was a popular tournament style called double-or-nothings, where 10 people started a tournament and the top 5 won double the buyin. The problem with this type of poker game was that it was too close to being solveable, and thus even the best players were only winning at 1-3% return on investment. When the best players in the game can't win at a rate higher than that, they have to play massive volume to make a profit, and in effect, most of the money in the player pool eventually ends up going to the site as rake.

As people have gotten better, everyone's winrates have gone down, and before this, they were decreasing daily. The best will always be able to profit in the long run, but as the break-even players get better and the losing players quit, the definition of "skill" changes. In a player pool of only competent players, any expected skill edge will take much longer to actualize, and thus everyone has to play more volume than they were previously to maintain the same profit. In other words, the luck factor dominates the short-run, and the short-run gets longer and longer.

This is why great players who had previously never had losing months/years were starting to have them. A sample size of 1000 multi-table tournaments used to be a great predictor of a player's actual skill edge, and now it's laughed at as meaningless as a predictor of future winrate. When people ask "what's a good sample size to determine my winrate?" the answer has been steadily increasing.

I still think it's a game of skill, but it's not as clear-cut as proponents of the game advocate, or want to believe.
Poker IS a form of gambling. I think everyone knows this. What makes it different from other forms of gambling is that the more skilled players will win in the long run. Make no mistake, if you are better than your opponents, you WILL win their money over the long run. That much is clear cut. Whether you are willing to treat it like a full time job or not is another discussion entirely.

Now, tournament poker absolutely has a lot more variance than cash games. Once the blinds get large, it becomes a lot of flipping and shoving for blinds and antes. The games have always been this way. If you ever played Rush SnG's on FTP.. you'll find PLENTY of horrible players. You have to game select and know what structure works best for you with a tournament.

I, however, play cash more than tournaments. Cash has less variance involved (also requires a little more skill) but even great players still lose. Also, there will always be fish (bad players), even if the games aren't like they were in 2006.

You seem to imply that playing poker should be really easy? And if you can't win huge all the time, then it's not worth it? I was averaging +15 buyins a week (playing 4-5 hours a day) this year. Sure, I had some times where I ran bad and at one point was down 13 buyins over a three day period but I turned that around and ended up for the week. The games are still totally beatable.

One complaint I hear a lot is that nowadays people play really tight and only play premium hands so there's no way to win and it's become losing all your money w a straight vs a flush etc. That's nonsense. When people are playing super tight, a good player starts playing really aggressive and loosens up. Some players never adjust and you steal their money all day.. others do and you force them to play outside their nitty comfort zone. If you can play post flop and know what you're doing, you'll clean up... even verse "regulars".
Edited by secretsexyninja - 4/30/11 at 5:43pm
post #178 of 186
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kirmie View Post
Wow, um no. Lets play a game of poker some time. You play correctly and I'll play correctly. According to your statement we are both guaranteed to make money. Where does this magical money we are making come from?
The fish in seat 3. Nobody sits at a table with only sharks, unless they are running the game as bait, or if they are TV pros who get their profits from sponsorships.

Your scenario is impossible because proper table selection is part of playing correctly.
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post #179 of 186
Quote:
Originally Posted by littledonny View Post
In theory, people can play optimally against each other, but only if the cards are face up. In that case, the players lose an equal amount to the site in rake. Neither profits.

The statement "poker is a skill game" is far too simple of a description. There are many types of "games" within poker: cash vs. tournament is the biggest subdivision of poker, and there are numerous subdivisions within those.

Some subdivisions are more skill games than others. For example, there was a popular tournament style called double-or-nothings, where 10 people started a tournament and the top 5 won double the buyin. The problem with this type of poker game was that it was too close to being solveable, and thus even the best players were only winning at 1-3% return on investment. When the best players in the game can't win at a rate higher than that, they have to play massive volume to make a profit, and in effect, most of the money in the player pool eventually ends up going to the site as rake.

As people have gotten better, everyone's winrates have gone down, and before this, they were decreasing daily. The best will always be able to profit in the long run, but as the break-even players get better and the losing players quit, the definition of "skill" changes. In a player pool of only competent players, any expected skill edge will take much longer to actualize, and thus everyone has to play more volume than they were previously to maintain the same profit. In other words, the luck factor dominates the short-run, and the short-run gets longer and longer.

This is why great players who had previously never had losing months/years were starting to have them. A sample size of 1000 multi-table tournaments used to be a great predictor of a player's actual skill edge, and now it's laughed at as meaningless as a predictor of future winrate. When people ask "what's a good sample size to determine my winrate?" the answer has been steadily increasing.

I still think it's a game of skill, but it's not as clear-cut as proponents of the game advocate, or want to believe.
Your argument disproves itself. The fact that players are getting better in general and that it is now harder to win proves that skill is the deciding factor. All you have shown is that the skill level needed to compete has risen. Obviously as edge decreases variance increases so it can take longer for results to match your theoretical win rate but that is irrelevant.
Quote:
Originally Posted by secretsexyninja View Post
Poker IS a form of gambling. I think everyone knows this. What makes it different from other forms of gambling is that the more skilled players will win in the long run. Make no mistake, if you are better than your opponents, you WILL win their money over the long run. That much is clear cut. Whether you are willing to treat it like a full time job or not is another discussion entirely.

Now, tournament poker absolutely has a lot more variance than cash games. Once the blinds get large, it becomes a lot of flipping and shoving for blinds and antes. The games have always been this way. If you ever played Rush SnG's on FTP.. you'll find PLENTY of horrible players. You have to game select and know what structure works best for you with a tournament.

I, however, play cash more than tournaments. Cash has less variance involved (also requires a little more skill) but even great players still lose. Also, there will always be fish (bad players), even if the games aren't like they were in 2006.

You seem to imply that playing poker should be really easy? And if you can't win huge all the time, then it's not worth it? I was averaging +15 buyins a week (playing 4-5 hours a day) this year. Sure, I had some times where I ran bad and at one point was down 13 buyins over a three day period but I turned that around and ended up for the week. The games are still totally beatable.

One complaint I hear a lot is that nowadays people play really tight and only play premium hands so there's no way to win and it's become losing all your money w a straight vs a flush etc. That's nonsense. When people are playing super tight, a good player starts playing really aggressive and loosens up. Some players never adjust and you steal their money all day.. others do and you force them to play outside their nitty comfort zone. If you can play post flop and know what you're doing, you'll clean up... even verse "regulars".
Lot of poker lingo in there that most people won't understand! valid points though
Edited by Stevinchy - 5/3/11 at 2:19pm
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post #180 of 186
1. I suck at poker, and always knew these online poker sites were scams.

2. Online poker is as about as good of an investment as Farmville. If you want to gamble, go to a bloody casino.
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