[TH] Nvidia Lowers Q4 Revenue Guidance, Stock Drops - Page 3 - Overclock.net - An Overclocking Community

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[TH] Nvidia Lowers Q4 Revenue Guidance, Stock Drops

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post #21 of 37 (permalink) Old 01-28-2019, 06:20 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by UltraMega View Post
RTX clearly needed to launch a generation later, on 7nm or smaller so they could have enough RT cores to release a product that didn't have to cost over a grand just to get decent (not good, just decent) performance. Nvidia wanted to confuse the casual gamer into thinking ray tracing is an Nvidia feature rather than a Directx12 feature (I'm sure other API's will support it soon as well.) and in doing so they rushed out a really disappointing and overpriced product just to be first to market with ray tracing.


When Nvidia bought Ageia back in the day, it seemed like they were doing gamers a favor by keeping us from having to start worrying about buying graphics cards and physics cards. This shift to releasing astronomically high priced products feels like a 180 from the nvidia from back then. I wonder if the damage they've done to their reputation will really hurt them in the long run. Speaking for myself, I have never bought an AMD card for myself but at this point I would much rather support AMD than Nvidia.
Wonder how much space the ray tracing cores take up - the RTX 2060 has a die almost as large as my 1080 Ti, and that's despite the die shrink from 16nm to 12nm! Meanwhile the 2080 Ti and Titan have enormous 754 mm^2 dies, can't be cheap to manufacture.

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post #22 of 37 (permalink) Old 01-28-2019, 06:51 PM
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Jensen is just trying to keep his job. There are multiple stories here, and this is just the normal reaction for a guy who's facing (with Nvidia as a whole) a class action suit from what he said on earning/quarterly calls over the last 6-9 months.

He's co-founder of the company, he's got a lot of skin in the game. INVESTORS have a lot of skin in the game. How he portrayed supply/demand over the last couple quarters has him in a HEAP of hot water. On October first - the stock was sitting at $289. Q4 hits...the reports are just coming up now (as evidenced by today's news). The stock sits at $138. Let that sink in. The company has lost 50% of his value in the last quarter. It's current market cap is $84 Billion. Double that...that's what they lost in 4 months (including January).

You think RTX and gamers and ray tracing caused $84B in losses? No. It's loss of confidence in a CEO on moving the ball forward on what should be their easiest customer - gamers. But think AI and machine learning. Think of enterprise contracts worth millions. They have big plans, no doubt. But RTX release was ugly. Demand for 10 series was overstated for 2 quarters by Jensen. And investors (whales), are wary as to the future under the command of a guy who just BS'd them for the last 6 months. The China excuse is weak too...AMD and Intel and Samsung and all the rest have taken that into account - but they aren't calling "The sky is falling, China...but, but China."

"It just works" didn't fly as they saw their stocks drop day after day. The memes we all laugh at cost a lot of people a lot of money, and he's the face of that meme and the company behind it.

Could good come of all this? Sure. Tech moves on, gets better - prices eventually lower and devs adopt RT. That day seems a bit far off at the moment, and it might need change at the top of Nvidia to make it a reality. Dude, he can still be a Musk and pseudo-run the show - but I think investors have had enough.

I think competition is good, but it needs to be healthy competition. Nvidia raises and sets the bar - let's be realistic. But hubris always leads to downfalls.

Anyone remember when they pushed back the release date of RTX from Sept. 20th to the 27th? Thankfully Jensen dumped 41,253 shares on the 18th at $271. No one said he wasn't smart

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post #23 of 37 (permalink) Old 01-28-2019, 06:53 PM - Thread Starter
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Quote: Originally Posted by Hydroplane View Post
Wonder how much space the ray tracing cores take up - the RTX 2060 has a die almost as large as my 1080 Ti, and that's despite the die shrink from 16nm to 12nm! Meanwhile the 2080 Ti and Titan have enormous 754 mm^2 dies, can't be cheap to manufacture.

16nm/14nm to "12nm" is not a die shrink, they are essentially the same process (and the 16nm and 14nm used for GPUs are comparable), just with some refinements that allow a bit higher clocks, a bit better power efficiency. It's more 16nm/14nm+, if we were to use Intel terms.

Look at the Ryzen 7 2700X, it uses the same die size as the 1800X. The RX 590 also uses the same die size as the RX 580 / 480.


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post #24 of 37 (permalink) Old 01-28-2019, 07:31 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Gill.. View Post
Jensen is just trying to keep his job. There are multiple stories here, and this is just the normal reaction for a guy who's facing (with Nvidia as a whole) a class action suit from what he said on earning/quarterly calls over the last 6-9 months.

He's co-founder of the company, he's got a lot of skin in the game. INVESTORS have a lot of skin in the game. How he portrayed supply/demand over the last couple quarters has him in a HEAP of hot water. On October first - the stock was sitting at $289. Q4 hits...the reports are just coming up now (as evidenced by today's news). The stock sits at $138. Let that sink in. The company has lost 50% of his value in the last quarter. It's current market cap is $84 Billion. Double that...that's what they lost in 4 months (including January).

You think RTX and gamers and ray tracing caused $84B in losses? No. It's loss of confidence in a CEO on moving the ball forward on what should be their easiest customer - gamers. But think AI and machine learning. Think of enterprise contracts worth millions. They have big plans, no doubt. But RTX release was ugly. Demand for 10 series was overstated for 2 quarters by Jensen. And investors (whales), are wary as to the future under the command of a guy who just BS'd them for the last 6 months. The China excuse is weak too...AMD and Intel and Samsung and all the rest have taken that into account - but they aren't calling "The sky is falling, China...but, but China."

"It just works" didn't fly as they saw their stocks drop day after day. The memes we all laugh at cost a lot of people a lot of money, and he's the face of that meme and the company behind it.

Could good come of all this? Sure. Tech moves on, gets better - prices eventually lower and devs adopt RT. That day seems a bit far off at the moment, and it might need change at the top of Nvidia to make it a reality. Dude, he can still be a Musk and pseudo-run the show - but I think investors have had enough.

I think competition is good, but it needs to be healthy competition. Nvidia raises and sets the bar - let's be realistic. But hubris always leads to downfalls.
I think the competition in the GPU sector between Nvidia and AMD is currently healthy, in the scientific, professional, and low to Vega 64/XX80 gaming tier. Only the XXTI, Titan tiers have no competition. Since there's only 1 contender, Nvidia. AMD hasn't challenged that tier in several quarters. From their business strategy it doesn't seem like they ever will at least for the foreseeable future. AMD released Vega 56/64 to challenge the XX70/XX80 tier. AMD will release Vega 7 to challenge XX80 tier. Still no challengers in the XX80TI, Titan tiers from AMD in 2019. The risk to reward for AMD to challenge Nvidia in that tier is currently not worth it in a business sense.

Even if AMD does make a competitive GPU, that doesn't necessarily mean sales in that respective tier. How many posts and comments do you see for AMD to be competitive so Nvidia will lower prices? Comments and posts like those likely means they had low intention to buying an AMD card to begin with, they want an Nvidia card, but at a lower price point. AMD, Nvidia, any business can set whatever price for their products from the start, it's their right. A high starting MSRP just doesn't guarantee a sale. Nvidia's starting to feel the effects of that decision as well other tech companies like Apple with their XS. Every market has a tipping point.

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post #25 of 37 (permalink) Old 01-28-2019, 08:56 PM
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Jensen maybe in trouble with the SEC the way he's acting now. Anyways, the main problem with RTX launch besides the cost/performance is the fact the cards were rushed to market and bursting in flames and crashing.


Makes me wonder why they released these cards, since the 10 series was still fairly new and facing 0 compitition.

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post #26 of 37 (permalink) Old 01-28-2019, 09:03 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Redwoodz View Post
Jensen maybe in trouble with the SEC the way he's acting now. Anyways, the main problem with RTX launch besides the cost/performance is the fact the cards were rushed to market and bursting in flames and crashing.


Makes me wonder why they released these cards, since the 10 series was still fairly new and facing 0 compitition.
Their revenue would have been worse if they just sat on 10-series for remainder of last year. They probably knew that honeymoon is over when the crypto market crashed, so they had to create new line of product to spark a new demand on a market.

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post #27 of 37 (permalink) Old 01-29-2019, 12:39 AM
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Well, Nvidia gambled big with ray tray, and loss this round.
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post #28 of 37 (permalink) Old 01-29-2019, 05:25 AM
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Trading of shares for employees should be banned altogether anyway, the whole stock market is broken. Employees should be allowed to "collect" shares and get paid from dividends but selling shares they should only be allowed after they leave the company. Right now all they do is insider trade based on knowledge of performance and secret issues only they know about.
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post #29 of 37 (permalink) Old 01-29-2019, 05:31 AM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Defoler View Post
At least they are being honest about at least understanding what the customers want, and not put the blame again on something else.

Hopefully this is a wake up call for them to figure out that they need to go back a few steps with the price tags.
Wow! Did Defoler just admitted Nvidia cards are overpriced, I guess they really went overboard this time.
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post #30 of 37 (permalink) Old 01-29-2019, 05:47 AM
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Quote: Originally Posted by sage101 View Post
Wow! Did Defoler just admitted Nvidia cards are overpriced, I guess they really went overboard this time.
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