[TechRadar] Intel admits it won’t catch up with AMD’s 7nm chips until 2021 - Overclock.net - An Overclocking Community

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[TechRadar] Intel admits it won’t catch up with AMD’s 7nm chips until 2021

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post #1 of 53 (permalink) Old 07-18-2019, 05:20 PM - Thread Starter
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[TechRadar] Intel admits it won’t catch up with AMD’s 7nm chips until 2021

"At a time when it gets harder and harder, we set a more aggressive goal. From that it just took us longer.The short story is we learned from it, we'll get our 10nm node out this year. Our 7nm node will be out in two years and it will be a 2.0X scaling so back to the historical Moore's Law curve.”

Source: https://www.techradar.com/news/intel...ips-until-2021
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post #2 of 53 (permalink) Old 07-18-2019, 05:37 PM
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Yeah they were caught unprepared. What matters is how they go about catching up. I have no doubts that soon they will be fighting hard to take the performance crown back from AMD.


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post #3 of 53 (permalink) Old 07-18-2019, 05:52 PM
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amd took so long to give them descent competition they were totally caught with their pants down, with this. I mean 6700k -9900k generations haven't had significant differences between them

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post #4 of 53 (permalink) Old 07-18-2019, 05:56 PM
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Another supposed tech writer not knowing Intel's 7nm =/= TSMC's 7nm.

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post #5 of 53 (permalink) Old 07-18-2019, 06:41 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Kpjoslee View Post
Another supposed tech writer not knowing Intel's 7nm =/= TSMC's 7nm.
As correct as you are, unfortunately for Intel, they are not releasing 10nm mainstream this year.
Given the announcement of the 9900KS, due later this year, that further confirms the above.

On top of all that, when they do release 10nm, it will only be clocked around 4.0-4.5Ghz so the performance gains per core will not be dramatic.
let's say, being intel, they manage a 20% IPC increase, the 9900KS, is a 5Ghz chip, so lets say they manage 4.5Ghz on 10nm, that a 11% decrease, making the overall increase only around 9% absolute best-case scenario. We are more likely looking at about a 5% increase core for core at the end of the day.
This at soonest, is mid next year, around the same time as Ryzen 4.

Given that Ryzen 3 is on par core for core with the 9900K on average across all workloads, and AMD have a had 15% increase between generations, we can expect Ryzen 4 to be 15% faster than 3.
Intels 10nm first gen will only be 5% faster, giving AMD a 10% lead on average core for core.

So Intels nearest chance of being = to AMD core for core is probably 2021 or 2022 depending on how quickly the revise desktop 10nm gen 1

So although the article is incorect, in that he missed the fact that AMD 7nm ~ Intel 10nm, he is correct in stating that Intel will only catch up to AMD in 2021.(best case scenario for Intel)

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post #6 of 53 (permalink) Old 07-18-2019, 07:05 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by SystemTech View Post

Given that Ryzen 3 is on par core for core with the 9900K on average across all workloads, and AMD have a had 15% increase between generations, we can expect Ryzen 4 to be 15% faster than 3.
Intels 10nm first gen will only be 5% faster, giving AMD a 10% lead on average core for core.

So Intels nearest chance of being = to AMD core for core is probably 2021 or 2022 depending on how quickly the revise desktop 10nm gen 1

So although the article is incorect, in that he missed the fact that AMD 7nm ~ Intel 10nm, he is correct in stating that Intel will only catch up to AMD in 2021.(best case scenario for Intel)
Hold up, you forgot the 15% IPC increase for AMD took them 2 years from 2017 to 2019. They didnt increase IPC every year. Leading me to believe the next 15% jump for Ryzen is in 2021, and will be head to head with Intel "7nm" node.

In fact in 2021 we might see Ocean Cove with 2.5D stacking for desktop chip on 7nm? That will be a very interesting year ahead.


And the article should change name to "overtake" AMD 7nm chip.

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post #7 of 53 (permalink) Old 07-18-2019, 07:40 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Kpjoslee View Post
Another supposed tech writer not knowing Intel's 7nm =/= TSMC's 7nm.
Maybe.

The thing is Intel has had trouble executing but TSMC has been on target. Now to be fair maybe Intel 7nm will have no issues. It might not. The team is said to be different. The first 7nm is supposed to be enterprise GPUs right? Always subject to change though.

TSMC is running 7nm+ EUV right now, though. And TSMC 5nm will be out by the time Intel ships 7nm (let's assume they are similar, but who can really say for sure at this point). It's possible Intel could dump a ton of capital and R&D spending and regain their fab lead but it seems doubtful. It's probably permanently gone--I don't think it's coming back, *ever*. They might be able to out-innovate everyone else with packaging though? But TSMC has similar advanced packaging...Hrm.
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post #8 of 53 (permalink) Old 07-19-2019, 05:23 AM
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As said above, the title of the article may be incorrect, but next year AMD will most likely be on 7nm EUV or 6nm, and with Intel still being on 10nm in 2020, in fact desktop parts will only appear by then, I'd say the conclusion / result is the same, Intel will probably only be able to catch up to AMD in 2021. By then it will probably be AMD on 6nm or 5nm and Intel on 7nm.


Quote: Originally Posted by guttheslayer View Post
Hold up, you forgot the 15% IPC increase for AMD took them 2 years from 2017 to 2019. They didnt increase IPC every year. Leading me to believe the next 15% jump for Ryzen is in 2021, and will be head to head with Intel "7nm" node.

In fact in 2021 we might see Ocean Cove with 2.5D stacking for desktop chip on 7nm? That will be a very interesting year ahead.


And the article should change name to "overtake" AMD 7nm chip.

Zen+ did increase IPC, by around 2.5% - 3% due to the several cache and memory latency optimizations. But Zen+ is a refinement of the original Zen design, as AMD said after Ryzen 1000 series launched back in 2017, the way the CPUs came out was the worst case scenario possible, so there was room for it to be polished, and it was with Zen+. The lower cache latency and the more gracious boost behaviour of Zen+ were originally scheduled for the original release, but didn't make it in time. The difference here is that next year, if the roadmaps are to be believed, we won't be getting a Zen 2+, but Zen 3, so a more substantial upgrade to the arch is to be expected. In fact, some of the improvements scheduled for Zen 3 were implemented early in Zen 2, which hopefully means that they are executing so well that they had more time to do the next round of improvements early too, and thus fill the gap with improvements that would originally go into Zen 4.


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post #9 of 53 (permalink) Old 07-19-2019, 06:28 AM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Kpjoslee View Post
Another supposed tech writer not knowing Intel's 7nm =/= TSMC's 7nm.
Why does that matter? The important bit is how a node performs and Intel is years behind. By 2021 their 7 nm they will have to fight against TSMC's 5 nm (Samsung's too as it seems) that would already have been in the market for a whole year.

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post #10 of 53 (permalink) Old 07-19-2019, 06:54 AM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Imouto View Post
Why does that matter? The important bit is how a node performs and Intel is years behind. By 2021 their 7 nm they will have to fight against TSMC's 5 nm (Samsung's too as it seems) that would already have been in the market for a whole year.
It matters because Intel's 10nm is essentially TSMC's "7 nm" and yes, Intel's 7nm is also known as TSMC's 5nm. The nm size really only reflects generations now rather than the actual gate size now. TSMC and GloFo continued to decrease their transistor size nomencalture when in reality, the actual gates haven't shrunk by nearly as much as the number suggests. Intel was always a full generation ahead of the competition. For once, the competition seems to have caught up to Intel. To say that intel is behind is completely absurd. Sure they're not industry leading anymore but that is far from behind.

Intel 10nm and TSMC 7nm is all a wash. There isn't any actual 10nm or 7nm measurement in any of this.
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