[TechSpot] Analyst says Nvidia lied about its cryptocurrency earnings to avoid stock crash - Page 3 - Overclock.net - An Overclocking Community

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[TechSpot] Analyst says Nvidia lied about its cryptocurrency earnings to avoid stock crash

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post #21 of 47 (permalink) Old 02-03-2019, 07:48 PM - Thread Starter
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Quote: Originally Posted by looniam View Post
totally non-responsive.
https://cryptomenow.com/1-98-billion...itcoin-mining/


i guess the press is also delusional.
Yes it is delusional. But lets also guess which came 1st the chicken or the egg?
Nvidia lied, they got caught and jacketman will lose his seat as CEO IMO.
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post #22 of 47 (permalink) Old 02-03-2019, 08:17 PM
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Quote: Originally Posted by EastCoast View Post
Yes it is delusional. But lets also guess which came 1st the chicken or the egg?
Nvidia lied, they got caught and jacketman will lose his seat as CEO IMO.
it doesn't matter which came first, just that both exists. but nice try on the false equivalence.

and further, not only are asic accountability rather sketchy but saying any/all gpus that contributed to the hash rate was bought primarily for mining is another glaring assumption. i know that you know there were many here that bought gpus for gaming but then mined on them to compensate for the price increases.

sorry if the facts get in the way of your opinion.

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post #23 of 47 (permalink) Old 02-04-2019, 07:34 AM
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I think jacketman will keep his job. As much as he should loose his spot, I can't seem him budging.
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post #24 of 47 (permalink) Old 02-04-2019, 08:51 AM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Defoler View Post
But didn't nvidia also claim that because AMD also had the same crash in cryptocurrency sales, and just dumped all their stocks at lower price to the market, that was what caused nvidia to be stuck with their stocks and not sell?

They claimed that they were already planning for the crypto demise, but were ready to just sell the leftover stocks over time with just minor price changes, but AMD interfered with their plan by just dumping it all in a sudden to make quick cash.

So it still doesn't make that much sense.
Unless nvidia either knew what AMD are planing to do, or they coordinated it, it could be that they had a solid plan gone wrong. So it still doesn't explain the difference in income. Also nvidia financial numbers claimed to increase revenue by 3B$ in the first 9 months of 2018. That doesn't come from nothing. Even datacenter sales do not reach those numbers.
They also released that they gained 2.2B$ in the first half of 2017 mainly from cryptocurrency sales. So I'm not sure sure the claim of them saying they gained a lot less makes sense.
I think people are confusing channel stock with reporting of revenue. The argument here is only partially related to stock, or volume of sales. We all know how many cards nvidia sold. It's that they misrepresented the number of sales, and revenue generated that was associated with crypto. Investors were under the impression that sales would not tank as much as they did since some believed there was demand outside of crypto that was driving sales, when in reality it was crypto.

The stock price soared from $90 - $260+ based on the constant beats on quarterly reports showing massive revenue growth. The premise was that this was due to datacenter growth, AI, autonomous driving, growth in gaming and crypto. Nvidia gave investors guidance on what percentage of their revenue fell into each of those categories. When the crypto bubble burst as ASIC were released that displaced GPU's the contribution to that revenue growth from crypto would disappear. Nvidia communicated that the % of that revenue growth from 2016-early 2018 was much smaller than it was in reality. That is why people are pissed.

On several earnings call Nvidia stated that the crypto impact would be small. Now, through analyzing AMD earnings, channel inventory, the timing of the release of ASICS that displaced GPU mining, etc it is becoming more clear that a drastically larger percent of Nvidia's revenue growth was directly tied to crypto and not the other forms of revenue.

Whether this was known by Nvidia or simply a result of a hard to track market (it's hard to tell what someone is using a GFX card for when they buy it) is unknown. If gpu mining were still a strong and stable business none of this would matter. But the crypto bubble burst and it took 3-4 quarters for things to settle. In that time Nvidia gave investors a false accounting for just how much crypto was a part of their revenues and how much those revenues would be adjusted down as a result.

At least that's how I understand it.
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post #25 of 47 (permalink) Old 02-06-2019, 06:10 AM
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SoftBank's investment fund dumps entire $3.6 billion stake in Nvidia
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/06/soft...hoo&yptr=yahoo
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post #26 of 47 (permalink) Old 02-06-2019, 07:47 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote: Originally Posted by looniam View Post
sorry if the facts get in the way of your opinion.
Oh? How about some fresh "out of the oven" facts:
Quote: Originally Posted by Hwgeek View Post
SoftBank's investment fund dumps entire $3.6 billion stake in Nvidia
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/06/soft...hoo&yptr=yahoo
@looniam
Oh, hold up, that's just an opinion piece /sarcasm.

Thanks for the update Hwgeek. We saw that coming. And again, IMO jacketman will loose his seat as CEO. I wouldn't be surprised to see Nvidia stock price go well below $100 before end of year.
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post #27 of 47 (permalink) Old 02-06-2019, 08:46 AM
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Quote: Originally Posted by EastCoast View Post
Oh? How about some fresh "out of the oven" facts:


@looniam
Oh, hold up, that's just an opinion piece /sarcasm.

Thanks for the update Hwgeek. We saw that coming. And again, IMO jacketman will loose his seat as CEO. I wouldn't be surprised to see Nvidia stock price go well below $100 before end of year.
Try not to look so desolate about it.

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post #28 of 47 (permalink) Old 02-06-2019, 08:52 AM
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Well if you look at Nvidias Revenue/Stock price you can see that the growth is way out of control. They had an increase with Pascal but it got stronger for 2017 and 2018. I think personally Nvidia should be in 6-8 Billion at most but somehow they hot 10 Billion and even more last year. This was with 2+ years old product. Since Q2 2017 until Q3 2018 they have had they revenue inflated by mining. I do not think 2 Billion is even correct. I am thinking even more.

Q3 2018 $3,181 + 1 Billion
Q2 2018 $3,123 + 1 Billion
Q1 2018 $3,207 + 1 Billion
Q4 2017 $2,911 - Mining full tilt. Everything is selling. +600 Million (Not even including the decrease because Pascal is over 1 years old)
Q3 2017 $2,636 - Mining full tilt. Everything is selling. + 400 Million
Q2 2017 $2,230 - Mining Rapup, 1080 Ti launch. You expect similar or lower sales compared to Q1.
Q1 2017 $1,937 - Sales slow down. Most games have gotten Pascal GPU
Q4 2016 $2,173 - More stock and people are buying.
Q3 2016 $2,004 - All Pascal Launch but 1080 Ti
Q2 2016 $1,428 - End of Maxwell, GTX 1080 Launch, Low Stock

In total with normal growth, you can see 4 Billon + in revenue just cause by mining.
That is not including the drop you see at the end of a product cycle. If you include that its closer to 5-6 Billion less. We can remove that due to other growth Nvidia has had in other markets.

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post #29 of 47 (permalink) Old 02-06-2019, 09:05 AM
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Quote: Originally Posted by Aemonn View Post
I think people are confusing channel stock with reporting of revenue. The argument here is only partially related to stock, or volume of sales. We all know how many cards nvidia sold. It's that they misrepresented the number of sales, and revenue generated that was associated with crypto. Investors were under the impression that sales would not tank as much as they did since some believed there was demand outside of crypto that was driving sales, when in reality it was crypto.

The stock price soared from $90 - $260+ based on the constant beats on quarterly reports showing massive revenue growth. The premise was that this was due to datacenter growth, AI, autonomous driving, growth in gaming and crypto. Nvidia gave investors guidance on what percentage of their revenue fell into each of those categories. When the crypto bubble burst as ASIC were released that displaced GPU's the contribution to that revenue growth from crypto would disappear. Nvidia communicated that the % of that revenue growth from 2016-early 2018 was much smaller than it was in reality. That is why people are pissed.

On several earnings call Nvidia stated that the crypto impact would be small. Now, through analyzing AMD earnings, channel inventory, the timing of the release of ASICS that displaced GPU mining, etc it is becoming more clear that a drastically larger percent of Nvidia's revenue growth was directly tied to crypto and not the other forms of revenue.

Whether this was known by Nvidia or simply a result of a hard to track market (it's hard to tell what someone is using a GFX card for when they buy it) is unknown. If gpu mining were still a strong and stable business none of this would matter. But the crypto bubble burst and it took 3-4 quarters for things to settle. In that time Nvidia gave investors a false accounting for just how much crypto was a part of their revenues and how much those revenues would be adjusted down as a result.

At least that's how I understand it.
While this could be, there are also a lot of things that could interfere with that assumption.

First off, nvidia claimed, that they lost revenue by not selling GPUs in Q3, because of crypto "hangover" (and they blamed AMD as well if you remember). They claim that they got stuck with 1.4B$ of inventory in Q3.
That wouldn't make sense really, if the claim that they kept on selling cards in the billions.

Secondly, the premise does not take into account AMD's rebrands and reducing prices. If AMD indeed dumped a load of 580s into the market, at MSRP or lower, they could have made those extra revenue the analysis claim off the normal market, and not crypto market.
Remember that he based his claims on sales made by AMD, not crypto specific sales, he based his numbers on crypto currency made, could be on coins that favoured AMD (like ethereum, so the math about what was bought, could be wrong).

Without real numbers (which none are willing to reveal), you can't really tell where is it coming from. Could be that nvidia really lied, or could be that they really did sell more desktop, because you could more easily find a GTX card than a RX during most of the year.


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post #30 of 47 (permalink) Old 02-06-2019, 11:05 AM
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Quote: Originally Posted by EastCoast View Post
Oh? How about some fresh "out of the oven" facts:


@looniam
Oh, hold up, that's just an opinion piece /sarcasm.

Thanks for the update Hwgeek. We saw that coming. And again, IMO jacketman will loose his seat as CEO. I wouldn't be surprised to see Nvidia stock price go well below $100 before end of year.
another false equivalence. it has nothing to do with my point such as:
Nvidia Quits Crypto Due to Low Profit, Not Because of Decline in Demand
22/08/2018
Quote:
Jensen Huang, the CEO at Nvidia, echoed the negative sentiment of Kress, adding that the profitability of its cryptocurrency-focused mining chips has declined substantially, as the price of cryptocurrencies moved to a downward trend.

BITMAIN’S $1 BILLION PROFIT
In July, CCN reported that Bitmain, the biggest conglomerate in the cryptocurrency sector valued at $19 billion, recorded a profit of $1.1 billion in the first quarter of 2018, generating approximately 65 times the profit recorded by Nvidia’s cryptocurrency venture.

Interestingly, Bitmain recorded a profit of $1.1 billion in the first three months of 2018, while Nvidia generated a profit of $550 million, exactly 50 percent of Bitmain’s. Despite being the biggest graphic card and chip manufacturer in the global market, Nvidia was not able to surpass the profitability of Bitmain.
one billion dollars during the same time frame the analyst says only NV and AMD have GPUs mining.

nothing you try to throw against the wall hoping it will stick will change the fact that the analyst's statement is flawed since it didn't account for ASICs. and it also assumes ALL GPUs that mined were bought for mining which is not true at all.

i mean c'mon man, you had to try and piggy back on someone else's post? how about doing some research yourself? in the meantime i hope you realize that an analyst gives an opinion and when it's given w/o hard facts (or any stated) to back it up . .well it certainly isn't news! so i am glad the MODs moved this to the more appropriate sub forum.

but nice try on your part to twist into more than it is . . . i guess.

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