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-   -   [AnandTech] Intel’s Manufacturing Roadmap from 2019 to 2029: Back Porting, 7nm, 5nm, 3nm, 2nm, and 1.4 nm (https://www.overclock.net/forum/225-hardware-news/1738286-anandtech-intela-s-manufacturing-roadmap-2019-2029-back-porting-7nm-5nm-3nm-2nm-1-4-nm.html)

WannaBeOCer 12-11-2019 02:49 PM

[AnandTech] Intel’s Manufacturing Roadmap from 2019 to 2029: Back Porting, 7nm, 5nm, 3nm, 2nm, and 1.4 nm
 
1 Attachment(s)
Source: https://www.anandtech.com/show/15217...m-2019-to-2029

Quote:

So let’s go through some key areas.

1.4nm in 2029
Intel expects to be on 2 year cadence with its manufacturing process node technology, starting with 10nm in 2019 and moving to 7nm EUV in 2021, then a fundamental new node in each of 2023, 2025, 2027, 2029. This final node is what ASML has dubbed '1.4nm'. This is the first mention on 1.4nm in the context of Intel on any Intel-related slide. For context, if that 1.4nm is indicative of any actual feature, would be the equivalent of 12 silicon atoms across.

It is perhaps worth noting that some of the talks at this year’s IEDM features dimensions on the order of 0.3nm with what are called ‘2D self-assembly’ materials, so something this low isn’t unheard of, but it is unheard of in silicon. Obviously there are many issues going that small that Intel (and its partners) will have to overcome.

+, ++, and Back Porting
In between each process node, as Intel has stated before, there will be iterative + and ++ versions of each in order to extract performance from each process node. The only exception to this is 10nm, which is already on 10+, so we will see 10++ and 10+++ in 2020 and 2021 respectively. Intel believes they can do this on a yearly cadence, but also have overlapping teams to ensure that one full process node can overlap with another.


Update: After some emailing back and forth, we can confirm that the slide that Intel's partner ASML presented at the IEDM conference is actually an altered version of what Intel presented for the September 2019 source. ASML added animations to the slide such that the bottom row of dates correspond to specific nodes, however at the time we didn't spot these animations (neither did it seem did the rest of the press). It should be noted that the correlation that ASML made to exact node names isn't so much a stretch of the imagination to piece together, however it has been requested that we also add the original Intel slide to provide context to what Intel is saying compared to what was presented by ASML. Some of the wording in the article has changed to reflect this. Our analysis is still relevant.

JackCY 12-12-2019 03:25 PM

Considering a more realistic difficulties I would rather say the progress will get exponentially worse at the least unlike their often overly optimistic linear difficulty which they are failing to meet for quite some time anyway.

BigMack70 12-12-2019 04:15 PM

All I see is a greedy, inept, complacent company that spent 8 years doing absolutely nothing, and now that a competitor has caught them with their pants down, they have to try and blow all the smoke they can to do maximum damage control on their stock price.

None of this will happen according to this timeline. 10nm is still vaporware in almost every realistic use of the word. This slide and its alleged plan is just a bunch of marketing bull excrement.

umeng2002 12-12-2019 05:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BigMack70 (Post 28235336)
All I see is a greedy, inept, complacent company that spent 8 years doing absolutely nothing, and now that a competitor has caught them with their pants down, they have to try and blow all the smoke they can to do maximum damage control on their stock price.

None of this will happen according to this timeline. 10nm is still vaporware in almost every realistic use of the word. This slide and its alleged plan is just a bunch of marketing bull excrement.

This

skupples 12-12-2019 05:55 PM

oh for sure. Pretty sure tech companies can blow the most smoke, as most holders & members don't know squat besides "have you tried turning it off and on again?" They get their tech advice from their nieces and nephews. I think this is part of the reason why AMD was able to blow their price back up so quickly. No one had a clue, & most folks around here were claiming they were gonna go outta business.

well, i'm here to say rebounding from $1.5 >>> ~$40 in less than 5 years is any CEO's dream scenario.

umeng2002 12-12-2019 06:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by skupples (Post 28235488)
oh for sure. Pretty sure tech companies can blow the most smoke, as most holders & members don't know squat besides "have you tried turning it off and on again?" They get their tech advice from their nieces and nephews. I think this is part of the reason why AMD was able to blow their price back up so quickly. No one had a clue, & most folks around here were claiming they were gonna go outta business.

well, i'm here to say rebounding from $1.5 >>> ~$40 in less than 5 years is any CEO's dream scenario.

Yeah, I remember this place and other forums saying AMD would be bankrupt no matter what, even if Ryzen was successful...

Shawnb99 12-12-2019 06:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by umeng2002 (Post 28235500)
Yeah, I remember this place and other forums saying AMD would be bankrupt no matter what, even if Ryzen was successful...



Now AMD can do no wrong and Intel is just evil.

skupples 12-12-2019 06:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shawnb99 (Post 28235504)
Now AMD can do no wrong and Intel is just evil.

said the same people.

funny how the world works. ;)

while the rest of us explained how its nearly impossible for AMD to fold.

m4fox90 12-12-2019 06:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Shawnb99 (Post 28235504)
Now AMD can do no wrong and Intel is just evil.

Ah yes the kindness of the company that kept us on $350 4c/8t chips for a decade

UltraMega 12-12-2019 06:34 PM

Can't wait for 10nm+++++++ further out.


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