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Super Moderator
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9,195 Posts
Discussion Starter #1
Warning: Math

I've been a member here since June 5, 2013, or 957 days. We'd expect to see my fifth flame obtained in another 957 days, or September 1, 2018. But that's too easy. Since I'm also bored, I'll do a per month breakdown:

  • 3 - June 2013
  • 15 - July
  • 15 - August
  • 15 - September
  • 9 - October
  • 12 - November
  • 21 - December
  • 25 - January 2014
  • 14 - February
  • 14 - March
  • 8 - April
  • 14 - May
  • 33(!) - June
  • 9 - July
  • 13 - August
  • 13 - September
  • 17 - October
  • 11 - November
  • 19 - December
  • 6 - January 2015
  • 10 - February
  • 4 - March
  • 3 - April
  • 5 - May
  • 1 - June
  • 16 - July
  • 10 - August
  • 6 - September
  • 4 - October
  • 12 - November
  • 13 - December
  • 7 - January 2016

Mmm, raw data. If we do a statistical analysis, we get a sum of 377 rep (I'm not fixing it), a mean of 11.8 rep per month, and a standard deviation of 6.77 rep per month. It's very loosely correlated. But we do know that it will probably take as many as 75 months or as few as 20 months (+/- one standard deviation), with a mean of another 32 months (the aforementioned September 2018 date). Based on the line of best fit's negative slope and what my next few years hold, it'll probably be closer to the 74 month option in March of 2022 rather than the 20 month option in September 2017.
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Programmer
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28,680 Posts
I love a bit of raw data too!
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Keep fighting the good fight!
 
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