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[Ars] US broadband growth plummeted in 2008

1162 Views 21 Replies 19 Participants Last post by  mr.derp
Quote:
By David Chartier | Last updated March 10, 2009 10:22 AM

A new study of 2008 broadband adoption reveals that subscriber growth continued its declining trend. Between factors like excessive premiums, comparatively slow speeds, and a segment of the population that has yet to be wooed away from dial-up, the US' broadband market is more saturated than ever.

Broadband growth in the US has dipped quite significantly for the second year in a row. According to a new study, various factorsâ€"including as a sheer lack of interest and economic disadvantagesâ€"caused the leading US broadband providers to experience their worst growth in nearly a decade.

The study, conducted by Leichtman Research Group (LRG), surveyed the top 20 US broadband providers, including Comcast, Time Warner, AT&T, Qwest, and Verizon. Collectively, said providers added 5.4 million broadband customers in 2008, which is down nearly 40 percent from the 8.5 million customers they added in 2007. These providers account for some 94 percent of the US market, which is now at about 67.7 million subscribers. Cable companies take the lion's share of this pool at 36.9 million broadband customers, while the telcos have 30.7 million subscribers.

The last time that US broadband subscriber growth was on the rise was 2006, when the providers added 10.4 million customers. The year-over-year drop in growth since then is attributed to a few key reasons that we have covered in the past, including market saturation, premium prices, low incomes, contentment with dial-up (no, really), and one in ten nonbroadband users stating that service is simply not available in their area.

Even mobile broadband is making a small dent in its wired counterpart's growth; Bruce Leichtman, president of LRG, told Ars that such services are not included in his research firm's study. A report from the end of 2007 found that mobile broadband use via 3G cards, tethered cell phones, and built-in (non-WiFi) adapters rose a whopping 154 percent to 2 million customers from the year before (or one percent of the overall broadband market).

In addition to growth problems, the US remains woefully behind in broadband speeds. The average US broadband speed is around 2.3Mbps down and 435Kbps up, while industrialized Asian nations get 63Mbps down, and even Canada gets 7.6Mbps down (albeit generally with much more severe usage caps). With a troubled economy, a sizable chunk of people content with dial-up, and problems serving rural areas, broadband growth will likely continue at dial-up speeds for the time being.
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obligatory "but can it run crysis?"

EDIT

whoa how did this end up in the wrong thread?

was try to post in THIS thread... that just makes no sense
Quote:

Originally Posted by om3n View Post
obligatory "but can it run crysis?"
That just...makes no sense in this situation.
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ok so can somebody explain why do japan and korea have the fastest speed?

http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/I...speedchart.jpg

im sure japan's got plenty of subscribers as well.
Quote:

Originally Posted by om3n View Post
obligatory "but can it run crysis?"

EDIT

whoa how did this end up in the wrong thread?

was try to post in THIS thread... that just makes no sense
Looks like the servers are showing how they feel about that sentence lol
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Quote:


Originally Posted by gerikoh
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ok so can somebody explain why do japan and korea have the fastest speed?

http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/I...speedchart.jpg

im sure japan's got plenty of subscribers as well.


because japan and Korea dont are much smaller and more urbanized than the united states? Because it cost much less for them to install national high speed internet. because the internet companies in japan arent complete morons?

seriously, im rockin dial-up right now and broadband stops less than 1 mile from my house and i live in central ohio....
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Quote:


Originally Posted by lhowatt
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because japan and Korea dont are much smaller and more urbanized than the united states? Because it cost much less for them to install national high speed internet. because the internet companies in japan arent complete morons?

but what about the uk? it's just as big as japan.
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I guess I can't complain (Canada)... we seem pretty high up?
In korea the interwebs are nationalized. They are able to spend tens of billions of dollars for their lines. Japan controls the interwebs companies. In the US, Canada, and Australia the webernets companies are a bunch of dbags mixed with the not being to spend billions upgrading lines since they don't work together, geography, etc.
Trouble is, they're throwing FiOS at metropolitan areas, where people just don't care as much about bandwidth. The suburban and rural surfers need the huge bandwidth (fer piratin) and are salivating waiting for it.

Seriously, what kind of FPS does it get in Crysis?
It doesn't help that the new trend is to put bandwidth caps on people...the early adopters who would pay for the premium high bandwidth services, paving the way for more general adoption, are likely to balk when there is a cap. Why spend a fortune for a Ferarri if it has a governor on it that keeps it under 65mph?
this is a really good article too about the situation:

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/0...theirs-faster/

Quote:


....

Urban density explains much of that disparity. In most of the world, by far the most common way to deliver broadband is DSL technology that sends data over copper phone lines. The shorter the length of the wire from the phone company office to your home, the faster the service can be delivered. The first generation of DSL could offer speeds of up to 7 megabits per second. The very latest generation offers up to 100 Mbps for very short distances.

The reason you see offers of DSL service in many European countries of 10 or 20 Mbps, sometimes more, is that in densely populated urban areas, the telephone companies have been able to wire homes using shorter connections and thus faster speeds.

Half the population of South Korea lives in very dense apartment complexes, mostly in or near Seoul. And most of its very fast broadband service has been delivered by fiber connections into the basements of these buildings, then delivered by fast DSL up to each apartment.

In the United States, phone companies could have offered a faster tier of DSL service to urban apartment dwellers. But instead they chose to offer slower speeds that they could also offer in the suburbs, where most of the more affluent customers live.

....

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i find some of these studies just plain stupid......so ok....you had an X amount of people last year go with broadband......in their opinion there should be at least the same or more this year? do they realize that the people who already have it don't need to purchase it again?......i mean this is ridiculous......you have some 300 million people living in the US....say half of them have broadband.....so they automatically "asume" that with every year there are going to be more and more people switching over? they fail to realize that the "left over crowd" keeps getting smaller and eventually the sales will plummet more as less and less people have the need for it......same with the automakers......less and less people need to buy cars......so what does the auto industry do? ask for more money from the government to build more cars that nobody needs to buy......
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Quote:


Originally Posted by VulcanDragon
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It doesn't help that the new trend is to put bandwidth caps on people...the early adopters who would pay for the premium high bandwidth services, paving the way for more general adoption, are likely to balk when there is a cap. Why spend a fortune for a Ferarri if it has a governor on it that keeps it under 65mph?

I agree 100%. The recent trend in cable companies and broadband providers in general has been ass backwards. This makes no sense at all. More people would sign up if restrictions were to be taken out not implemented in force. Reminds me of AOL charging for minutes and look where they've ended up financially - a bad joke.

Caps, throttling, the ridiculous pricing, they all have to go in order for the market to grow.
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Originally Posted by Vlasov_581
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i find some of these studies just plain stupid......so ok....you had an X amount of people last year go with broadband......in their opinion there should be at least the same or more this year? do they realize that the people who already have it don't need to purchase it again?......i mean this is ridiculous......you have some 300 million people living in the US....say half of them have broadband.....so they automatically "asume" that with every year there are going to be more and more people switching over? they fail to realize that the "left over crowd" keeps getting smaller and eventually the sales will plummet more as less and less people have the need for it......same with the automakers......less and less people need to buy cars......so what does the auto industry do? ask for more money from the government to build more cars that nobody needs to buy......


They should ask for more money to be given to the people so the people can ****ing afford to buy their cheap built and ugly cars.

I love Pontiacs to death btw, but damn are they a failiure, I had the power steering fail me 3 times, and my car isn't even 3 years old.

American cars=fail imho and in reality, but support our autoindustry anyway.

Rockin a Saturn Vue RedLine and Pontiac G6 GT
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2
There's a serious flaw to their argument though. Added 8.5 million subscribers in 2007, and added 10.4 in 2006 means that 18.9 million households or firms subscribed altogether. Well, I'll assume they have a 20% marginal error, that's still approximately 15 million subscribers that's already using broadband. Do they honestly expect the number of new subscribers to increase each year?
There is approximately 2.6 people per-household. This article seems to assume just because the US has 300 million+ people that there should be 300m+ subscribers. According to the article there are 67.7 million subscribers, quite an impressive feat. That means 67.7 million household and/or firms currently use broadband, how many more can you actually add? How are you going to except the number of subscribers to increase yearly if the number of subscribers are fixed? In my opinion this article has failed written all over it.
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Quote:

Originally Posted by mr.derp View Post
In korea the interwebs are nationalized. They are able to spend tens of billions of dollars for their lines. Japan controls the interwebs companies. In the US, Canada, and Australia the webernets companies are a bunch of dbags mixed with the not being to spend billions upgrading lines since they don't work together, geography, etc.
That's a new word, haven't heard it before


I agree tho
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Quote:


Originally Posted by yawnbox
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this is a really good article too about the situation:

http://bits.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/0...theirs-faster/

That article is good to make the topic more known...but it does not look at all into depth including the various different methods of technologies for internet delivery, as well as economics and survivability.

Anyways it is nice that the topic is being tended 2

Quote:


Originally Posted by lhowatt
View Post

because japan and Korea dont are much smaller and more urbanized than the united states? Because it cost much less for them to install national high speed internet. because the internet companies in japan arent complete morons?

seriously, im rockin dial-up right now and broadband stops less than 1 mile from my house and i live in central ohio....


This is an understandable point you make...but the fastest civil use internet connection is not from cable or fiber optic but instead it's a Japanese satellite.

So, it is absolutely insignificant whether your in a small area or an area as large as the Marian Grand Canals~!

Quote:


Originally Posted by mr.derp
View Post

In korea the interwebs are nationalized. They are able to spend tens of billions of dollars for their lines. Japan controls the interwebs companies. In the US, Canada, and Australia the webernets companies are a bunch of dbags mixed with the not being to spend billions upgrading lines since they don't work together, geography, etc.


Herein lay the truth of why USA/Canada/UK are all behind the Asian Block in technology.

The US blackops have " The " fastest internet service courtesy of the 'american taxpay'.

If the US government "actually" cared enough about it own country and people to put $1B or more into a grid of sats for internet usage that trumped that of the Japanese high-speed internet sat. US would be that much ahead of the competition.

The problem is that the " lack of leadership " at the top from Bush to now Obama, the latter whom openly has spoken about not starting trade wars or "competition".

Leads us to where we are [email protected]#$%^&~ED-!
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Quote:


Originally Posted by thunder_2008
View Post

That article is good to make the topic more known...but it does not look at all into depth including the various different methods of technologies for internet delivery, as well as economics and survivability.

Anyways it is nice that the topic is being tended 2

This is an understandable point you make...but the fastest civil use internet connection is not from cable or fiber optic but instead it's a Japanese satellite.

So, it is absolutely insignificant whether your in a small area or an area as large as the Marian Grand Canals~!

Herein lay the truth of why USA/Canada/UK are all behind the Asian Block in technology.

The US blackops have " The " fastest internet service courtesy of the 'american taxpay'.

If the US government "actually" cared enough about it own country and people to put $1B or more into a grid of sats for internet usage that trumped that of the Japanese high-speed internet sat. US would be that much ahead of the competition.

The problem is that the " lack of leadership " at the top from Bush to now Obama, the latter whom openly has spoken about not starting trade wars or "competition".

Leads us to where we are [email protected]#$%^&~ED-!

We are behind asia in the UK, but based on that study we're alot better off than the US and Canada. Th average over here is about 8mb down, with up to 50mb down in some areas with virgin cable.
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