Where the 5800 series REALLY went (conspiracy theory)!

Answer - US government.

Theory - they built at least 1 - if not more absolutely ridiculous supercomputers with them. These supercomputers are SOO powerful, that they don't even want it known yet. At some point, they will admit to having them by way of exposure due to clues. Here are some clues.

1.)5800 series are impossible to find at decent prices.

More so than I've ever seen in my life for any piece of technology. Yes, there are supply and demand scenarios (Tickle me Elmo, Wii's, the like)...but those are short lived and it doesn't cripple entire industries. This is why the 5800 is different...it is SO big - it's literally changing the GPU market - and video games - and hence technology purchases, the technology behind all that (other hardware and software)....everything.

And yes, these are built cards - but it is this series of chip (and lack of Nvidia competition - which is IMPERATIVE to this story and theory)...that is just not around in the numbers you'd expect.

2.)Commitment by institutions to Fermi at huge quantities, but Ati's have been silent. But here's the thing. Fermi has been repeatedly delayed, and while they talk big (supercomputing this, fermi that, cuda this..)..it's still not here. the computers have been built for this current gen, and others are in the works...

So there's already a crush to one brand as everyone waits for Nvidia to please bring back the competition........

3.)Intel bows out yesterday. Are you kidding me?? Seriously? Like that? That may have been intended as a wimper - but to me that's a BANG!!! NO MORE LARABEE...I knew it would fail... and it did...lol...I really couldn't believe it when I read it - I didn't think they'd bend so quickly...wow

Intel's options: promote i7 and the like and how it couples with (xxx...here's the thing...they're still fighting Nvidia....AND FTC is stepping up there too)..so Intel will be stuck in this position and HAVE to play nice with both Nvidia AND their arch enemy - AMD. But hyperthreading and mucho video card supercomputers really go well!!

4.)Chinese defense department makes #5 of the known public super computers with 2560 4870 x2's (uses 2 GPU chips... so that's only 5000 total chips we're talking here - big part of clue). Ironically - they coupled it with Xeons (9000 of them...lol)...oh by the way, that was their first time trying at this list....
http://www.top500.org/lists/2009/11

5.)US stimulus money...it was going everywhere, don't you think our military and inteligence agencies got some too like everyone else?? Of course they did, and IT builds...they know it's strategic...

6.)TSMC's stock price: see google finance and look at the price for the year as a whole - very important. Right when the money was flowing...it peaks...then dips in July...Relatively steady as the 5800 series debut approaches and comes....and then a small dip as people get pissed that there are not enough cards available...then it goes back up - even higher than before knowing that they'll get through it and people LOVE them so much and they're only getting better that they'll keep building.

http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:TSM

7.)Yields are known, they're known to be bad 40%? seriously? Known to still not even be really at 50%....and they're trying to keep up with demand. There is no easy fix to this and it is really our only constant.

8.)Demand - OEM's and crazies like us (enthusiast market). OEM's not so much though, I mean - 5800 series in an OEM? not in this economy, I don't buy it - there will be models out there of course priced appropriately - but cheaper systems with cheaper chips (4800 and 5700) will be the rue of the day for the most part. This leaves us the enthusiests in the world of hurt... and we're noticing...but like the people buying the $1800-$2500 OEM model's versus cheap models ($400-$900) will be tilted WAY to the cheap. I don't buy that argument from TMSC/ATI/AMD...OEM's did NOT dry this up...

Enthusiest are in the minority...BUT..it's single chips we're really looking to buy (versus GPU's as a video card as a concept)..just like cpu's now....So like cpu's - we spend heavy here way more than any OEM market percentage.

So where did all these chips go? Even with 40% - I can't and don't see that many of them out in the world to account for the severe shortage we're seeing.

And so here's my official guess:

HUGE 10000 plus GPU supercomputers built on ATI 5800 series GPU's (maybe 2- maybe 5 who knows).....these are also coupled with Xeons like the Chinese did....

9.)Intel prices still hold steady relative to demand and performance - but with a clear majority of the market AND - all these supercomputers (which also mimic the market in percentage). While funny that AMD's entry and mass power in recent lists - the majority of computers on that list are still Intel. So if ALL those chips are going there, prices hold steady...

10.)And AMD cpu's still remain dirt cheap with unbelievable performance. Why is this important? because it's the other constant that remains. Even if ATI released hyperthreading..Intel would still command a larger market share due to history....But ATI continues to make awesome chips cheap - real cheap...

11.)AMD is ATI - you can't have your cake and eat it too syndrome. You can't have the same company offering one chip so dirt cheap at the expense of another and not give both equal footing..In comparison to AMD, ATI as a brand is kind of higher priced in your head. Think about it - it was always a video card company - we just take it for granted now because we've known them as one in the same the last couple of years...

AMD is a CPU maker...they have the power to make as many chips as they wanted IF they wanted - just like Intel. You could not offer me a 550 BE knowing that 70% of those chips are instant competitors to your 965 at $85 more...that's just insane...

Unless you knew your video card chip was SOO profitable it didn't matter..just try to keep them happy as a group (AMD/AND ATI together - which then goes to gamers and mixes with the Nvidia and Intel crowd.

12.)Intel and Nvidia crowd. They are huge, they are 2/3 of all reported GPU's on Valve's steam..right off the bat... and intel has 2/3 as well...I mean... AMD is still definitely a minority...

If you KNEW your 5800 series was that good and would sell so many hundreds of thousands... how could you NOT foresee this demand (ESPECIALLY since Nvidia thing and Intel problems above were known for some time - WAY before 5800 series was released).

13.)Economy sucks. It does, and you still can't find them. How is that logical. there is NO WAY ATI/AMD would have missed this this bad..

14.)Supercomputers and distributed computing will be ruled by the GPU coupled with power friendly CPU's. The list was slapped hard by the Chinese on purpose - don't think it wasn't..It's WAY cheaper to buy 2500 4870 X2's than it is to buy 20K plus CPU's (no matter WHICH brand). The CPU's are of course essential on running that much craziness...and there's stuff you'll always want the precision of a dedicated CPU...but with mutlicore CPU's - this is a non-issue...

There's only so much room for videocards per board - and hence the need to CPU's...reinforcing the above.

ALL EVIDENCE POINTING TO:

So where'd they go huh?? Doesn't the above look logical? Where else WOULD they go? And what are these supercomputers being used for - and why can't we know about them? Wouldn't that investment as public knowledge as use of the stimulus funds be a good thing you'd think?

Now I know that there must be a HUGE group of people who know this, you just can't keep this secret. TSMC stock keeps going up, everyone is making crazy profits, and us idiots keep buying them at inflated prices. I'm just saying that might be presumably because of artificially inflated prices due to a huge unforeseen US government purchase in AMD/ATI's eyes...but they were offered a BOATLOAD of money for those chips...and they took it with the promise they'd take the heat on this massive screwup and keep their mouths shut.

They'll be a group of you who read this and agree. There will be even more of you who will have thought this already... and the rest will probably think I'm nuts...oh I'd love to crunch those numbers...

So what does 10K 5870 TFLOPS look like again? And with a 4 PCIE slot motherboards - you'd only need 2500 boards and CPU's - think of that....just more evidence..that's insane...they're using Xeons, no one notices the dip or a change in cost from Intel pricing.

I do blame Nvidia for their bringing this S-storm upon us. No one would have noticed anything with the 5800 series if there had been competition from Nvidia.