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Read More http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/09/habitable-world-next-may/#ixzz105L1K66a

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A new mathematical analysis predicts the first truly habitable exoplanet will show itself by early May 2011.

Well, more or less. “There is some wiggle room,†said Samuel Arbesman of the Harvard Institute for Quantitative Social Science, lead author of a new paper posted online and to be published in PLoS ONE October 4. His calculations predict a 50 percent probability that the first habitable exoplanet will be discovered in May 2011, a 66 percent chance by the end of 2013 and 75 percent chance by 2020.
We have not found one yet... but at the current rate, we should soon.
 

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Exciting stuff! I can't wait to get of this rock!
 

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now if only nasa actually had some funding
 

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Soon, trading will not only be done from country to country.
But from planet to planet


How do they "calculate" these numbers?
 

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Originally Posted by Setzer View Post
How do they "calculate" these numbers?
Read the article...
 

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How fortunate, half a year. Would've been pretty dull if the analysis said 10,000 years into the future ..

Anyway, since it hasn't been dicovered yet indicates that it won't be in our imidiate vicinity, and with space travel technology in its current state, i don't see this being of importance for a loooong time ..
 

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There are probably many planets out there that were once inhabitable. But then war consumed the planet and what we see, thousands of years later, is the wasteland left behind.

We may find a habitable planet by 2011, but what if it's 10000 light years away? The planet may have been habitable 10000 years ago, but at present time, it may not be habitable any longer
 

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ZTempo View Post
How fortunate, half a year. Would've been pretty dull if the analysis said 10,000 years into the future ..

Anyway, since it hasn't been dicovered yet indicates that it won't be in our imidiate vicinity, and with space travel technology in its current state, i don't see this being of importance for a loooong time ..
This.

Until we can travel near light-speed, or somehow either faster than light, or travel from point A->B in a shorter distance than a straight line, than it won't be very useful for much other than study.
 

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Originally Posted by lordikon View Post
Discovered, probably. How long until we can get there in a reasonable amount of time?
Depends on the distance... but not in our lifetimes.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ZTempo View Post
How fortunate, half a year. Would've been pretty dull if the analysis said 10,000 years into the future ..

Anyway, since it hasn't been dicovered yet indicates that it won't be in our imidiate vicinity, and with space travel technology in its current state, i don't see this being of importance for a loooong time ..
Not true at all. Current planet hunting techiques are quite limited. We definitely have not exhausted searching local stars. Currently, we can only see massive planets around particular stars.

Quote:

Originally Posted by r34p3rex View Post
There are probably many planets out there that were once inhabitable. But then war consumed the planet and what we see, thousands of years later, is the wasteland left behind.

We may find a habitable planet by 2011, but what if it's 10000 light years away? The planet may have been habitable 10000 years ago, but at present time, it may not be habitable any longer
Then again.... we would possibly be able to detect the aftermath of a global war. That alone would be interesting as evidence of sentient life. I believe Earth's strongest broadcasts has been miltary radar signals during prior wars.
 

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Quote:

Originally Posted by DuckieHo View Post

Not true at all. Current planet hunting techiques are quite limited. We definitely have not exhausted searching local stars. Currently, we can only see massive planets around particular stars.

Well, even if this planet was discovered right outside our solar system (which was what i meant by immediate vicinity) and had somehow not been discovered, it would still take a considerable time to reach it. At the speed of our current space shuttles, a trip to pluto will take approximately 23 years, which is hardly viable ..
 

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Originally Posted by Setzer View Post
Soon, trading will not only be done from country to country.
But from planet to planet


How do they "calculate" these numbers?
I'd use one of these nifty little gadgets that just came out 30 years ago... A calculator, i kid i kid but i bet the taxes for imported goods will be "sky" high...

Bad pun is bad, i'm sorry ill be leaving now
 

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Quote:

Originally Posted by ZTempo View Post
Well, even if this planet was discovered right outside our solar system (which was what i meant by immediate vicinity) and had somehow not been discovered, it would still take a considerable time to reach it. At the speed of our current space shuttles, a trip to pluto will take approximately 23 years, which is hardly viable ..
I never disagreed about travel. I do disagree with you conclusion that not many planets are left in our immediate vicinity.

Four planets around Gliese 876 was discovered this year and is only 4.7 lightyears away. A few planets are also around Gl 581 (6.26 lightyears) was discovered last year.

The techniques used to discover planets are very limited: http://exoplanet.eu/catalog.php
* radial velocity or astrometry
* microlensing
* imaging
* timing
 

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I think the study assumes an awful lot. Just because a planet is of the right size and in the same zone, doesn't mean liquid water will be on it. Also, to call it habitable would require much more research than just, "Yay it has water, we can live there." If the ocean temperature is 95C, we wouldn't like it very much.
 

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Originally Posted by losttsol View Post
I think the study assumes an awful lot. Just because a planet is of the right size and in the same zone, doesn't mean liquid water will be on it. Also, to call it habitable would require much more research than just, "Yay it has water, we can live there." If the ocean temperature is 95C, we wouldn't like it very much.

A water temperature of 95C is habitable.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperthermophile
 

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Quote:

Originally Posted by DuckieHo View Post
A water temperature of 95C is habitable.

Ya, by giant clams maybe.
 

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Quote:

Originally Posted by r34p3rex View Post
There are probably many planets out there that were once inhabitable. But then war consumed the planet and what we see, thousands of years later, is the wasteland left behind.

We may find a habitable planet by 2011, but what if it's 10000 light years away? The planet may have been habitable 10000 years ago, but at present time, it may not be habitable any longer
There's more wrong with the first half of this post than I can tackle all at once, but I'll just say that we define habitable as "earth-sized with an oxygen atmosphere with liquid water". That definition includes planets blasted by nukes.

And even if we nuked ourselves to hell and gone and the earth was clicking hot for a hundred thousand years, it would still repair itself and be habitable within one million years. It might set life back a hundred million years, but life would go on.
 

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Quote:

Originally Posted by DuckieHo View Post
I never disagreed about travel. I do disagree with you conclusion that not many planets are left in our immediate vicinity.

Four planets around Gliese 876 was discovered this year and is only 4.7 lightyears away. A few planets are also around Gl 581 (6.26 lightyears) was discovered last year.

The techniques used to discover planets are very limited: http://exoplanet.eu/catalog.php
* radial velocity or astrometry
* microlensing
* imaging
* timing
It seems our dispute comes down to the definition of "immediate vicinity". Of course distances in space are tremendous, but even Gliese 876 which "is only 4.7 lightyears away." seems out of reach so to say, at least for the time being ..
 
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